Iraqi police in Basra shed their uniforms, kept their rifles and switched sides

Oil prices surge on sabotage near Basra, bottleneck at South Korean refinery

Compiled by Daily Star staff
Friday, March 28, 2008

Oil prices surge on sabotage near Basra, bottleneck at South Korean refinery

Oil rose above $106 a barrel on Thursday after saboteurs blew up a major pipeline in Iraq, cutting exports from the south of the country, and also because of strength in heating-oil futures. The attack on the pipeline in southern Iraq came on the third day of an Iraqi military operation against fighters loyal to Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr in the oil port of Basra.

"Today's action was driven up by the explosion and catching fire of a pipeline in Iraq," said Nauman Barakat, oil trader and senior vice president at Macquarie Futures USA.

US crude was up $1.05 to $106.95 a barrel by 1630 GMT, having earlier risen as high as $107.70. London Brent crude added $0.56 to $104.55.

Crude was also pulled up by heating oil, which rose almost 2 percent. Traders said a force majeure declaration by South Korean refiner S-Oil for April loadings of oil products had in part prompted the gain.

In Iraq, officials said that efforts were under way to get shipments back to normal. It is the first time since 2004 that the southern supply route has been disrupted.

Iraq exported about 1.54 million barrels per day from Basra in February. Overall Iraqi oil exports have only recently returned to a rate similar to that before the US-led invasion.

Officials in Basra had different views about how long it would take to restore supplies and the seriousness of the attack.

Oil's move up followed a jump of almost $5 on Wednesday prompted by a drop in fuel inventories in top consumer the US and as a weak dollar prompted investors to move money back into commodities.

Global supplies are being further pressured by the Organization of Oil Producing Countries' (OPEC] decision to maintain its output levels earlier this month.

Oil prices have also been supported by long-term concerns over the ability of producers to meet rising energy demand from the developing world, notably China and India.

"Many are using commodities to hedge themselves against much-feared inflation," said Sucden analyst Andrey Kryuchenkov.

New York crude hit a record intraday high of $111.80 on March 17, while London Brent scored a historic peak of $108.02 earlier this month.

Gasoline stocks fell by a larger-than-expected 3.3 million barrels and distillates dropped 2.2 million barrels, also more than forecast, the Energy Information Administration said.

Analysts say the weakening dollar has prompted investors to buy oil and other commodities as a hedge against inflation, while dollar strength can lower demand for commodities.

Exacerbating the impact of foreign exchange moves, oil futures are priced in dollars, making them more expensive to investors overseas when the greenback rises.

Thursday's supply concerns temporarily drew investors' attention from the dollar, which rose slightly against the euro, reversing the trend that had partly sent oil futures surging on Wednesday. - Agencies




Times Online

From The Times

March 28, 2008
Iraqi police in Basra shed their uniforms, kept their rifles and switched sides

Mehdi Army fighters loyal to cleric Moqtada al-Sadr hold their weapons while flashing the V sign in Basra

James Hider in Baghdad

Abu Iman barely flinched when the Iraqi Government ordered his unit of special police to move against al-Mahdi Army fighters in Basra.

His response, while swift, was not what British and US military trainers who have spent the past five years schooling the Iraqi security forces would have hoped for. He and 15 of his comrades took off their uniforms, kept their government-issued rifles and went over to the other side without a second thought.

Such turncoats are the thread that could unravel the British Army’s policy in southern Iraq. The military hoped that local forces would be able to combat extremists and allow the Army to withdraw gradually from the battle-scarred and untamed oil city that has fallen under the sway of Islamic fundamentalists, oil smugglers and petty tribal warlords. But if the British taught the police to shoot straight, they failed to instil a sense of unwavering loyalty to the State.

“We know the outcome of the fighting in advance because we already defeated the British in the streets of Basra and forced them to withdraw to their base,” Abu Iman told The Times.

“If we go back a bit, everyone remembers the fight with the US in Najaf and the damage and defeat we inflicted on them. Do you think the Iraqi Army is better than those armies? We are right and the Government is wrong. [Nouri al] Maliki [the Iraqi Prime Minister] is driving his Government into the ground.”

The reason for his apparent switch of sides was simple: the 36-year-old was already a member of the al-Mahdi Army which, like other militias, has massively infiltrated the British-trained police force in the southern oil city. He claimed that hundreds of others from the 16,000-strong force have also defected to the rebels’ ranks.Abu Iman joined the new Iraqi police force after the invasion, joining the Mugawil, a special police unit infamous for brutality, kidnapping and sectarian murders.

“We already heard two weeks ago that we were going to attack the Mahdi Army, so we were ready,” he said. “I decided to take off my uniform and join my brothers and friends in the Mahdi Army. All these years, we were like a scream in the face of the dictator and the occupation.” He said: “I joined the police because I believed we have to protect Basra and save it with our own hands. You can see we were the first fighters to take on Sadd-am and his regime, the best example being the Shabaniya uprising.”

Abu Iman said that the fighting raging in Basra yesterday was intense because the al-Mahdi Army was operating on its own turf. He was confident that the Shia militia would prevail because its cause was just.

“The Iraqi Army is already defeated from within. They come to Basra with fear in their hearts, knowing they have to fight their brothers, the sons of Iraq, because of an order from Bush and his friends in the Iraq Government. For this reason, all of the battles are going in the Mahdi Army’s favour.”

Major-General Abdelaziz Moham-med Jassim, the director of operations at the Ministry of Defence, played down reports of defections in the Basra police force. “The problem of one policeman doesn’t make up for the whole of the force,” he said.

In recent months Major-General Abdul Jalil Khalaf, Basra’s police chief, has tried to shake up the force and drive out militia infiltrators, who have wrought havoc in the past, often turning police stations into torture cells in which factions settled vendettas and power struggles with murder and abuse. But he only narrowly escaped an assassination attempt yesterday when a suicide car bomb attack in Basra killed three of his policemen. A local tribal leader said the police directorate building was later gutted by fire.





Times Online

From The Times

March 26, 2008
Basra showdown: Iraqi troops take on the Mahdi Army

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Hojatoleslam Moqtada al-Sadr threatened a country-wide civil revolt if the Iraqi Army attacks did not stop

James Hider in Baghdad

Basra erupted yesterday into some of the heaviest fighting since it was seized by the British Army five years ago, as Iraqi government forces took on a Shia militia that has turned the city into a morass of murder, kidnap and oil smuggling.

Nouri al-Maliki, the Shia Prime Minister, who has worked in often awkward collaboration with the militias, flew into the southern port city to take personal charge of the mission, staking his reputation on a showdown with the all-powerful al-Mahdi Army.

There were further clashes in other cities in the south and in areas of Baghdad as the sprawling militia hit back, ordering policemen out of neighbourhoods they control and even kidnapping officers.

After the US military’s success in curbing a Sunni insurgency and turning guerrillas against allies linked with al-Qaeda, the Government decided to take on the Shia militia that dominates the south and centre of the country, and which has infiltrated the police force, ministries and the civil service.

The fighting quickly spread from Basra to the town of Kut, just southeast of Baghdad, and to parts of the capital, where supporters of Hojatoleslam Moqtada al-Sadr, the vitriolic anti-American cleric who founded the militia, demonstrated and staged strikes against the government crackdown.

The fighting in Basra, where around 80 per cent of Iraq’s oil is located, was the biggest battle the al-Mahdi Army has fought since weathering a US military onslaught in the holy city of Najaf in 2004. Then, however, it rallied massive support by branding itself as resistance to the US military occupation. Now, after years of murders, extortion, and racketeering by the militia, any such rallying cry is unlikely to stand close scrutiny.

Al-Mahdi Army does, however, have a vast, loose network of supporters and members in key areas of society, notably the police force. A source at the Interior Ministry said there had been chaos for several hours as various bureaux beholden to different political factions issued countermanding orders yesterday.

The Basra offensive was launched by the army, a more loyal government force that has been the focus of US military training and is considered to be much less influenced by militias, many of which receive support from Iran. Major-General Ali Zaidan, the commander of the Iraqi army operation, said the offensive would continue “until we achieve our target”. That target was to “wipe out all the outlaws. There were clashes and many outlaws have been killed,” he said. At least 22 people were killed in the fighting, officials said, as British helicopters provided reconnaissance in Basra and US warplanes flew over Sadr City in Baghdad, a hotbed of the militia.

British troops were not involved in the fighting itself. They withdrew from Basra late last summer to an airbase on the edge of city.

Even before that, however, they had largely handed over control of Basra to Iraqi forces even as militias were taking over. With troop numbers due to be cut to just 2,500 by the end of the spring, some critics say there are barely enough soldiers in the base to protect their own operations.

After touring Basra on Monday, Mr al-Maliki promised a crackdown on militias that were waging a “brutal campaign . . . accompanied by the smuggling of oil, weapons and drugs . . . Basra has become a city where civilians cannot even secure their lives and property”.

In an ominous sign that the unrest could intensify, Hojatoleslam al-Sadr threatened a countrywide civil revolt. Officials reported al-Mahdi Army fighters in Sadr-controlled areas of Baghdad kidnapping policemen affiliated to a rival militia, the Badr Brigades, the armed wing of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, which is a senior government party.

But Harith al-Ithari, the head of the Sadr office in Basra, said the organisation — which also runs charities and holds government posts — was ready to negotiate to restore the ceasefire it had observed since last autumn. He dismissed the government statement that it was targeting illegal armed groups, accusing it of specifically targeting al-Mahdi Army.

“We are ready to negotiate,” he said. “The al-Mahdi Army is still under a freeze, but as citizens they can defend themselves if they are threatened.”

Ali al-Dabagh, a government spokesman, insisted the operation was not specifically aimed the al-Mahdi Army, which has tried to clean up its image and purge itself of rogue elements since announcing its ceasefire last year. That purge has often included summary executions and severe beatings, members say.

“These operations are not targeting the Sadr party. There is a campaign to disarm unauthorised weapons and there are no exceptions at this point,” Mr al-Dabbagh said. “The Government is determined to hit with an iron fist anyone using weapons and threatening citizens”.

Militiamen in Sadr City later fired four rockets into the green zone government quarter in the heart of Baghdad, narrowly missing Mr al-Maliki’s headquarters and a hospital.

Military curfews were imposed in many southern cities, and the fighting in Basra was dying down as night came on.

While heated, the fighting was far less intense than al-Mahdi Army uprising against the American military in 2004, when hundreds of irregular Shia fighters were killed. Analysts gave warning, however, that the al-Mahdi ceasefire had been a key plank in the recent calm that accompanied the US military “surge” last year, along with the turning of Sunni armed groups against al-Qaeda in Iraq.

Mahdi's messiah

Hojatoleslam Moqtada al-Sadr says his militia is preparing the way for the Mahdi, a messiah figure believed by Shia to be their 12th imam, who disappeared in the 9th century

Initially the group was small, made up of 500-1,000 combatants. By April 2004, however, its numbers had swelled dramatically and it began seizing ground — notably in Najaf and Sadr City, Baghdad

By August 2006 the militia was estimated to be 60,000-strong, and it appeared that Moqtada al-Sadr had only partial control over the group

In the summer of 2007 he called a truce, saying: “I direct al-Mahdi Army to suspend all its activities . . . until it is restructured in a way that helps to honour the principles for which it is formed”

The truce has been credited with much of the reduction in violence over the past six months

Sources: Times archives, GlobalSecurity.org







Times Online

From Times Online

March 27, 2008
Areas of Baghdad fall to militias as Iraqi Army falters in Basra

Fighters loyal to Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr with their weapons in Basra, southern Iraq on 27 March 2008



Gunmen loyal to Hojatoleslam Moqtada al-Sadr have fought back against the Iraqi Army

James Hider, of The Times, in Baghdad

Analysis: Zubair 1 is crucial pipeline

Iraq’s Prime Minister was staring into the abyss today after his operation to crush militia strongholds in Basra stalled, members of his own security forces defected and district after district of his own capital fell to Shia militia gunmen.

With the threat of a civil war looming in the south, Nouri al-Maliki’s police chief in Basra narrowly escaped assassination in the crucial port city, while in Baghdad, the spokesman for the Iraqi side of the US military surge was kidnapped by gunmen and his house burnt to the ground.

Saboteurs also blew up one of Iraq's two main oil pipelines from Basra, cutting at least a third of the exports from the city which provides 80 per cent of government revenue, a clear sign that the militias — who siphon significant sums off the oil smuggling trade — would not stop at mere insurrection.

In Baghdad, thick black smoke hung over the city centre tonight and gunfire echoed across the city.

The most secure area of the capital, Karrada, was placed under curfew amid fears the Mahdi Army of Hojetoleslam Moqtada al-Sadr could launch an assault on the residence of Abdelaziz al-Hakim, the head of a powerful rival Shia governing party.

While the Mahdi Army has not officially renounced its six-month ceasefire, which has been a key component in the recent security gains, on the ground its fighters were chasing police and soldiers from their positions across Baghdad.

Rockets from Sadr City slammed into the governmental Green Zone compound in the city centre, killing one person and wounding several more.

Mr al-Maliki has gambled everything on the success of Operation Saulat al-Fursan, or Charge of the Knights, to sweep illegal militias out of Basra.

It has targeted neighbourhoods where the Mahdi Army dominates, prompting intense fighting with mortars, rocket-grenades and machineguns in the narrow, fetid alleyways of Basra.

In Baghdad, the Mahdi Army took over neighbourhood after neighbourhood, some amid heavy fighting, others without firing a shot.

In New Baghdad, militiamen simply ordered the police to leave their checkpoints: the officers complied en masse and the guerrillas stepped out of the shadows to take over their checkpoints.

In Jihad, a mixed Sunni and Shia area of west Baghdad that had been one of the worst battlefields of Iraq’s dirty sectarian war in 2006, Mahdi units moved in and residents started moving out to avoid the lethal crossfire that erupted.

One witness saw Iraqi Shia policemen rip off their uniform shirts and run for shelter with local Sunni neighbourhood patrols, most of them made up of former insurgents wooed by the US military into fighting al-Qaeda.

In Baghdad, thousands of people marched in demonstrations in Shia areas demanding an end to the Basra operation, burning effigies of Mr al-Maliki, whom they branded a new dictator, and carrying coffins with his image on it.

From his field headquarters inside Basra city, the Prime Minister vowed to press on with his attack, which he said was not targeting the Mahdi Army in particular but all lawless gangs. "We have come to Basra at the invitation of the civilians to do our national duty and protect them from the gangs who have terrified them and stolen the national wealth," he said. "We promise to face the criminals and gunmen and we will never back off from our promise."

Supporters of Hojetoleslam al-Sadr, the rebellious cleric who formed the sprawling, 60,000-strong militia five years ago, have accused the Prime Minister of trying to wipe out the powerful Sadrists as a political force before provincial elections in October.

Residents of Basra complained that water and electricity had been turned off in the three main areas besieged by the Iraqi Army, which has an entire division deployed for the battle. They also said that they were running low on food an unable to evacuate their wounded. Estimates of the death toll in Basra reached as high as 200, with hundreds more wounded.

“The battle is not easy without coalition support,” lamented one Basra resident, who had worked as a translator for the British forces. “The police in Basra are useless and helping the Mahdi Army. The militia are hiding among the civilians. This country will never be safe, I want to leave for ever. I don’t know how to get out of this hell.”

One man was shot in the leg while trying to fix the rooftop water tank on his house but feared he would be taken for a militiaman if he tried to reach a hospital. Officials said that more than 200 militiamen had surrendered after the Government issued a three-day deadline to give themselves up.

While residents in Basra said that the army appeared to be making little headway against the militia bastions, a British Army spokesman based at nearby Basra airport said progress was being made.

“The Iraqi Army are rebalancing across the city, consolidating their positions, resupplying and preparing for future operations,” said Major Tom Holloway. “They made considerable progress, although not total progress by any stretch of the imagination.”

With fighting flaring across the Shia south, the police chief of Kut — where Mahdi fighters had seized large parts of the town, 110 miles southeast of Baghdad — said his men had killed 40 militiamen while losing four officers.

"The security forces launched an operation at around midnight to take back areas under the control of Shiite gunmen," Abdul Hanin al-Amara said.

While US and British military officials have been at pains to distance themselves from the push against the deadly militias, President Bush praised the high-risk strategy of tackling militias that a politically weak Mr al-Maliki had been forced to court in the past.

"Prime Minister Maliki's bold decision, and it was a bold decision, to go after the illegal groups in Basra shows his leadership and his commitment to enforce the law in an even-handed manner," Mr Bush said. "It also shows the progress the Iraqi security forces have made during the surge."

If the Iraqi forces fail to stamp out the powerful militias, however, and Iraq sinks into a new bout of in-fighting, Mr Bush’s troops and British forces may be forced to weigh in, sparking a new round of blood-letting ahead of US elections and scuttling British plans for an early withdrawal from Iraq.









Times Online

From The Times

March 28, 2008
Iraq: the battle for Basra
Britain should suspend the withdrawal of its troops from southern Iraq

For much of his time as Iraqi Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki has been criticised for inaction and indecision. The initiative that he is undertaking in Basra can hardly be condemned on either count. In taking the fight to the ad hoc bands of militias and criminals who effectively control swaths of that city, he has put his own standing, the reputation of Iraq's armed forces and his country's renewed claim to nationhood on the line. If he succeeds in restoring order in this part of southern Iraq, displacing the followers of Moqtada al-Sadr in the process, then the prospects of Iraq becoming a stable and prosperous nation would be enhanced substantially. If he were seen to fail, by contrast, not only Basra but sections of Baghdad itself would be placed beyond the command of the central Government. Hopes for permanent peace would thus recede.

It is imperative, therefore, that this mission is a success and not a failure. In ideal circumstances, the battle would be won by Iraqis alone, with the security forces teaming up with tribal elders to overthrow gangs that have exercised ruthless authority on the streets and interrupted national oil supplies for private smuggling and profiteering. This is precisely the course that Mr al-Maliki is attempting to steer and he is right to want to achieve his ends by these means. It is possible that he will prevail but his opponents have the advantage of local knowledge and have demonstrated that they will not be disarmed without a struggle. At a minimum, the effort might require air support from Britain and the US and realistically it could demand yet more firepower.

Such a reverse might be embarrassing but it is far better than the alternative options. It would be little short of a disaster to allow Mr al-Maliki's drive to end in humiliation while some 4,000 British troops sat on their hands at Basra airbase, and it would scarcely be better if the Americans were asked to divert resources from their surge strategy so that UK Forces could avoid a conflict. Britain assumed responsibility for security in southern Iraq at the time of the intervention just over five years ago and it remains best placed to assist the Iraqi Army in its contest today. If it is not possible to rescue Basra before elections are due to be held there in October, that would be a damning indictment of British foreign policy as well as Mr al-Maliki's political credibility.

There are some significant implications to this. As matters stand, the British contingent in southern Iraq is set to be reduced to 2,500 men in the next few months with a further drawing-down in numbers to 1,500 expected not long after. This is partly to allow for a redeployment into Afghanistan but also to send the political signal that Britian's military role in Iraq is coming to an end. In present circumstances, this would mean leaving a total force that was barely sufficient to conduct training of the Iraqi Army and which could be vulnerable to attack in its own base.

It would be irresponsible to stick to this timetable. Ministers should make it plain that the current troop levels will be maintained in the area at least until the end of the year and if a modest increase is required to guarantee that conditions in Basra improve dramatically, so be it. This is a crucial moment not only for Iraq's second city but for the whole quest for normalisation. If the militias are disbanded, free elections are held and the oil industry can function properly then wider political reconciliation in Iraq will be lubricated. Britain could bring about that outcome in Basra. It would be a gross dereliction of duty not to try.









The Independent
Independent.co.uk

Stalled assault on Basra exposes the Iraqi government's shaky authority

By Patrick Cockburn
Friday, 28 March 2008

The Iraqi army's offensive against the Shia militia of the radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr in Basra is failing to make significant headway despite a pledge by the Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to fight "to the end".

Instead of being a show of strength, the government's stalled assault is demonstrating its shaky authority over much of Baghdad and southern Iraq. As the situation spins out of Mr Maliki's control, saboteurs blew up one of the two main oil export pipelines near Basra, cutting by a third crude exports from the oilfields around the city. The international price of oil jumped immediately by $1 a barrel before falling back.

In Baghdad, tens of thousands of supporters of Mr Sadr, whose base of support is the Shia poor, marched through the streets shouting slogans demanding that Mr Maliki's government be overthrown. "We demand the downfall of the Maliki government," said one of the marchers, Hussein Abu Ali. "It does not represent the people. It represents Bush and Cheney."

The main bastion of the Sadrist movement is impoverished Sadr City, which has a population of two million and is almost a twin city to Baghdad. The densely packed slum has been sealed off by US troops. "We are trapped in our homes with no water or electricity since yesterday," said a resident called Mohammed. "We can't bathe our children or wash our clothes."

The streets are controlled by Mehdi Army fighters, many of whom say they expect an all-out American attack, though this seems unlikely since the US says that an attack on the Shia militias is a wholly Iraqi affair.

In Basra, Iraqi forces have cordoned off seven districts but appear stalled in their effort to dislodge the Mehdi Army fighters. Masked gunmen in some cases have captured or seized abandoned Iraqi army vehicles and painted pro-Sadrist slogans on their armour.

A co-ordinated mortar bombardment struck the main police base in the city beside the Shatt al-Arab waterway and there was heavy shooting in the main commercial street of Iraq's southern capital. An Interior Ministry source said that 51 people had been killed and more than 200 wounded in three days of fighting in Basra. There was an attempt to assassinate Basra's police chief in which three of his bodyguards were killed by a bomb.

Mr Maliki's surprise offensive against the Mehdi Army is likely to have repercussions far beyond Iraq. The Americans must have agreed to the attack though they had previously praised the six-month ceasefire declared by Mr Sadr on 29 August and renewed in February as being one of the main reasons why violence had fallen in Iraq. Although Mr Sadr has said the truce is continuing it is ceasing to have much meaning.

President George Bush praised Mr Maliki yesterday saying he faces a "tough battle against militia fighters and criminals". He said that the Iraqi Prime Minister had taken a bold decision "in going after the illegal groups in Basra".

But the rapid increase in violence may puncture optimism in the US over the "success" of the surge in leading to a turning point in the five-year-long war.

The Green Zone, the heavily fortified centre of American power in Iraq, was wreathed in smoke yesterday as it was struck by rockets and mortars fired from Shia neighbourhoods. In a further blow to the belief that the surge has restored law and order, one of the two Iraqi spokesmen for the Baghdad security plan, which is at the heart of the surge strategy, was kidnapped and three of his bodyguards killed before his house was set on fire. The victim was Tahseen Sheikhly, a Sunni who often appeared with American officials to proclaim the success of the surge.

Clashes are now taking place across Iraq and most of the Shia districts in Iraq. In the middle of last year a Mehdi Army commander said that his militia controlled 80 per cent of Shia Baghdad and 50 per cent of the capital as a whole. This is probably only a slight exaggeration. There has also been heavy fighting in Kut on the Tigris, where 44 have been killed and 75 wounded, and in Hilla on the Euphrates where 60 people died. In past months the Sadrists have been locked in a struggle for Diwaniya, also on the Euphrates south of Baghdad, where they have been fighting police units controlled by Badr, the militia of the other great Shia party, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI).

When he first came to power, Mr Maliki balanced between ISCI and the Sadrists but has steadily become closer to the first party and has shown growing hostility to Mr Sadr. The last great battle between the Sadrists and the Iraqi government backed by the Americans was in Najaf in 2004 and was ended by the intervention of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani who wanted the Sadrists humbled but not crushed. He also did not want to see the Shia community divided into warring factions. It is possible that the Grand Ayatollah may seek to mediate again but Mr Maliki may find it difficult to compromise after his claim that he will win control of Basra.

The government has about 15,000 soldiers and the same number of police in Basra but this is not a great number in a city of two million. The police are closely linked to the militias and are unlikely to prove a resolute ally against the Mehdi Army.







The Independent
Independent.co.uk

Iraq implodes as Shia fights Shia

Another tragedy as the Shia majority turn on each other

By Patrick Cockburn
Thursday, 27 March 2008

A new civil war is threatening to explode in Iraq as American-backed Iraqi government forces fight Shia militiamen for control of Basra and parts of Baghdad.

Heavy fighting engulfed Iraq's two largest cities and spread to other towns yesterday as the Iraqi Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki, gave fighters of the Mehdi Army, led by the radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, 72 hours to surrender their weapons.

The gun battles between soldiers and militiamen, who are all Shia Muslims, show that Iraq's majority Shia community – which replaced Saddam Hussein's Sunni regime – is splitting apart for the first time.

Mr Sadr's followers believe the government is trying to eliminate them before elections in southern Iraq later this year, which they are expected to win.

Mortars and rockets launched from Mehdi Army-controlled districts of Baghdad struck the Green Zone, the seat of American power in Iraq, for the third day yesterday, seriously wounding three Americans. Two rockets hit the parking lot of the Iraqi cabinet. The mixed area of al-Mansur in west Baghdad, where shops had begun to reopen in recent months, was deserted yesterday as Mehdi Army fighters were rumoured among local people to be moving in from the nearby Shia stronghold of Washash. "We expect an attack by the Shia in spite of the Americans being spread over Sunni districts to defend them," said a Sunni resident.

Forty people have been killed and at least 200 injured in Basra in the last two days of violence. In the town of Hilla, south of Baghdad, 11 people were killed and 18 injured yesterday by a US air strike called in support of Iraqi forces following street battles with Shia militia members in the city's Thawra neighbourhood. In Baghdad, 14 have been killed and 140 wounded.

The supporters of Mr Sadr, who form the largest political movement in Iraq, blame the Americans for giving the go-ahead for Mr Maliki's offensive against them and supporting it with helicopters and bomber aircraft. US troops have sealed off Sadr City, the close-packed slum in the capital with a population that is the main bastion of the Sadrists, while the Mehdi Army has taken over its streets, establishing checkpoints, each manned by about 20 heavily armed men. It is unlikely that the militiamen in Basra will surrender as demanded by the government. Sadiq al-Rikabi, an adviser to Mr Maliki, said those who kept their weapons would be arrested. "Any gunman who does not do that within three days will be an outlaw."

Streets were empty in Basra and Baghdad as people stayed at home to avoid the fighting. The Mehdi Army is enforcing a strike in Baghdad with mosques calling for the closure of shops, businesses and schools.

In the Shia city of Kut, on the Tigris south of Baghdad, local residents say that black-clad Mehdi Army militiamen have taken over five districts and expelled the police.

At the same time, Mr Sadr is clearly eager to continue the truce which he declared on 29 August last year after bloody clashes in Kerbala with Iraqi police controlled by the rival Shia political movement, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, and their well-organised militia, the Badr organisation.

He renewed this ceasefire in February, saying he wanted to purge its ranks of criminals. "The freeze that Sadr has ordered is still ongoing," said one of his chief lieutenants, Luwaa Smaism.

Mr Sadr has sought to avoid an all-out military confrontation with American troops or Badr backed by American forces since he fought two ferocious battles for Najaf against US marines in 2004.

Mr Sadr has sent emissaries to Mr Maliki asking him to remove his troops, numbering some 15,000 men from Basra, and to resolve problems peacefully. But his aides say there will be no talks until the Iraqi army reinforcements are withdrawn. The offer of talks is in keeping with Mr Sadr's past behaviour, which is to appear conciliatory but in practice to make few real concessions. The US is claiming that the Sadrists are not being singled out, only Iran-supported militia factions, but this will find few believers in Iraq.

"This is not a battle against the [Mehdi Army] nor is it a proxy war between the United States and Iran," said a US military spokesman, Major General Kevin Bergner. "It is [the] government of Iraq taking the necessary action to deal with criminals on the streets."

The Sunni population is pleased to see the government and the Americans attacking the Mehdi Army, which they see as a Shia death squad. "Before, the Shia were arresting and killing us and forcing us to leave Iraq for Jordan and Syria where we lived in misery," said Osama Sabr, a Sunni in west Baghdad.

The fighting is threatening to disrupt Iraq's oil production, most of which comes from the Basra area, because workers in the oilfields dare not leave their homes.

The militia

The Mehdi Army

Armed wing of the Sadr movement. Muqtada al-Sadr's militia is divided, with one wing supporting the radical cleric's ceasefire while another has rejected it and continued attacks on Iraqi government forces and the British base at Basra aiport.

The Badr Brigade

Armed wing of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council. The Badr Brigade has been involved in numerous clashes with the Mehdi Army and appears not to be the target of the current offensive by the Iraqi government forces. The group has organised "spontaneous" demonstrations against General Mohan and General Jalil.

The Fadhila

A political party and armed group with a localised powerbase. The governor of Basra is a member of the party, and it controls a significant proportion of the region's oil supply.

Secret Cells

Said to be armed and trained by Iran and allegedly carrying out attacks ordered by Tehran.







Toward a US policy that looks beyond Arab oil
By Tamer Mallat
Commentary by
Friday, March 28, 2008



The energy crisis is upon us. Gas at the pump has increased threefold in two years. Inside the United States, criticism mounts of the huge profits enjoyed by oil companies at a time of deepening recession. Ideally, using alternative energy resources offers a way out of global dependency on petroleum products. Unfortunately, that depends on scientific breakthroughs only partly at hand. Hence the importance of the Middle East, which has the largest known oil reserves on earth.

The struggle for control of oil reserves is rightly acknowledged as a leading factor in the conflicts of the contemporary Middle East. America has retained a key advantage by maintaining alliances with most of the region's major oil producers, in the process buttressing their autocratic regimes. Yet this is a shortsighted emphasis. More useful, and valuable, would be for the US to see the region in a broader scope, through its rich history and culture. It is home to over 400 million people for whom oil is of lesser concern than what they have offered the world over the centuries, which has defined Arab identity and pride in ways oil never could.

Increasingly for the citizens of the Middle East, Western, particularly American, policy is an aggravating factor in their already miserable daily lives. Hostility to the US is not baseless. Supporting repressive Israeli actions, backing one side or the other in domestic conflicts, turning a blind eye to human rights abuses committed by ruthless governments, whose leaders-for-life run rentier states and care little about diversifying their countries' economies - these are only some of the crimes that America is perceived to be associated with by its Arab critics. The tragedy is always the same and the victims are always the same: Peoples at the mercy of powers they have no ability to influence or control.

How does a US policymaker, who must focus on oil because that is what consumers concerned by rising gas prices are most interested in, shift attention to the basic rights of the peoples of the Middle East?

For starters, the US must make the defense of democracy and human rights a real policy priority. This involves not only advocacy by administrations, but taking systematic, tangible steps to build on what has already been gained in the expansion of rights and liberties. The reason for this is that, realistically, the US cannot brusquely abandon its alliances with despots. What it needs to do is begin a gradual departure from the approach of today, bringing about a general change in mood and behavior that can then be consolidated in the medium and long term.



The US must also actively push its Arab allies, where applicable, to diversify their economies. The curse of oil can often be worse for locals than for American consumers. How can Arab societies be weaned off oil? There is no easy recipe, but instead of paying completely with cash, the US may choose to pay for oil partly through financial arrangements that emphasize job creation outside the oil sector. Oil producers may not accept anything but cash, but some sort of a "diversification tax" could be levied on American oil companies working in Arab states. Washington should also be more evenhanded in its relationship with Israel. When Israel makes a mistake, the US should not ignore it. This would fortify the notion that America is fair with all sides. If the US claims to be a world leader, then it should prove this by equitably mediating between the parties. Such a policy change would not necessarily make the Middle East less autocratic, but it would allow Arabs to trust the US more.

These three steps - greater emphasis on human rights issues beyond a focus on narrow oil or political interests, encouraging diversification of Arab economies, and a more nuanced relationship with Israel - if taken as the basis for new rapports between the US and Arab regimes, would also encourage ordinary Arabs to put greater pressure on their own leaders, this time with the manifest backing of the US.

In such a context, each small step can eventually lead to a bigger one, until one day there is much more latitude for the peoples of the Middle East to choose systems of government that best serve them. Once again, this can only be a gradual, long-term process; democracy takes time to develop, but it is necessary for the US to start the ball rolling now.

It took more than a century for France to find stability after its 1789-1799 revolution, and it took several generations for England's monarchs to finally cede political power. But societies, like individuals, can be changed, and should be if they are based on injustice. The world in general, and the US in particular, has a greater stake in the Middle East than oil and self-interest, and it's about time that policy begins to reflect this fact.

Tamer Mallat will be graduating this year from Concord Academy in Massachusetts. He wrote

this commentary for THE DAILY STAR.







Maliki defiant as Shiite revolt spreads
By Agence France Presse (AFP)

Friday, March 28, 2008

Maliki defiant as Shiite revolt spreads



Karim Jamil

Agence France Presse

BASRA: Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki vowed on Thursday to pursue a crackdown on Shiite gunmen despite protests and mounting casualties, as Iraqi troops battled militias in the cities of Basra and Kut. At least 105 people have died countrywide in clashes since Maliki ordered his troops to crack down on "lawless gangs" in Basra on Tuesday, according to official reports. Some sources have put the toll at double that.

The military operations have been mostly in areas controlled by the Mehdi Army fighters of Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, severely straining a "freeze" he ordered of the militia's activities last August.

In Baghdad, Sadr's followers staged noisy protests against the crackdown in Basra and demand the resignation of Maliki, who is personally overseeing the military operations.

Sadr has threatened to launch a civil revolt if the attacks against his militiamen continue.

The Iraqi prime minister vowed not to back away from the military onslaught.

"We have come to Basra at the invitation of the civilians to do our national duty and protect them from the gangs who have terrified them and stolen the national wealth," he said in a statement, vowing not to back off.

Basra has become the theater of a turf war between the Mehdi Army and two rival Shiite factions - the powerful Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council (SIIC) of Abdel-Aziz al-Hakim and the smaller Fadhila party.

In an interview with state television Al-Iraqiya, Maliki said the operation was not aimed at any particular political faction. "Frankly we don't care who these gangs are linked to," he said.

"They violated laws, attacked property and killed innocents. We were surprised, however, that a specific political faction just exploded and gathered its forces to block the work of the government and started to attack the police," he added, without identifying the group.

In Washington, US President George W. BushMBA-Presidents Sep-07 called the fighting in Basra a "positive moment" for the development of Iraqi security forces and proof the Baghdad government could defend itself.

The police chief of Kut, Abdel-Hanin al-Amara, told AFP that among those killed during Thursday's military assault were four policemen and 40 Shiite militiamen.



"The security forces launched an operation at around midnight (2100 GMT Wednesday) to take back areas under the control of Shiite gunmen," Amara said in Kut, 175 kilometers southeast of Baghdad.

"At least 40 gunmen and four policemen were killed. Around 75 people were wounded. Police have now imposed full control on these neighborhoods," he added.

An AFP correspondent in Basra, meanwhile, said heavy fighting erupted early Thursday in the central Jumhuriyya neighborhood, a Mehdi Army bastion, where militiamen attacked troops with mortars, machineguns, rocket propelled grenades and small arms fire.

Police said Basra police chief Major General Abdel-Jalil Khalaf survived a suicide car bomb attack in central Basra but three policemen were killed.

The port city was covered by thick black smoke on Thursday from a blast which damaged an oil pipeline transporting crude from Zubair oil field to the Al-Faw storage facility.

Samir al-Maksusi, spokesman for the Southern Oil Company, said the bomb attack would directly affect exports.

Maksusi said the fire was later extinguished but added: "The technical crew needs 48 to 72 hours to repair the pipeline."

News of the pipeline attack as well as general nervousness over the fighting in Basra sent oil prices jumping above $107 a barrel in London. Eight people, meanwhile, were killed in clashes in Babel Province, south of the capital, Iraqi and US officials said.

In Baghdad, insurgents fired five rockets into the heavily fortified Green Zone on Thursday, killing one civilian and wounding 14, the US military said.

In Sadr City, an impoverished Shiite district of around 2 million people in east Baghdad, crowds gathered outside the Sadr office to yell slogans against Maliki.

"Maliki you are a coward! Maliki is an American agent! Leave the government, Maliki! How can you strike Basra?" the crowd chanted.

In northern Baghdad's Kadhimiyya district, Sadr followers carried a coffin covered in red fabric with a photograph of Maliki set against the background of an American flag, referring to him as "dictator."

DEBKA-Net-Weekly - Israel - Mossad - ASSORTED ARTICLES

DEBKA-Net-Weekly – Israel – Mossad - ASSORTED ARTICLES

Vol. 8, Issue 342, March 28, 2008

Suddenly, Iraq Hits a New Crossroads
PM Maliki Flouts Washington, Rides Alone in Basra

All of a sudden, Monday, March 24, Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki plunged the southern Iraqi oil city of Basra into bloody strife. And, just as suddenly, the offensive led against recalcitrant Shiite militias and gangs in Iraq’s second largest city became a turning-point in America’s five-year Iraq campaign.

The prime minister had decided to gamble his seat and his Shiite Dawa party on a lone offensive, without the US army, with the immediate prospect of sparking fraternal Shiite strife. Within 24 hours, the death toll climbed to scores, and the first tongues of flame were licking at Basra’s Shiite neighbors Kut, Samawa and Nasiriyeh and striking sparks in Baghdad’s sprawling Shiite Sadr City.

Unless it can be quickly extinguished or resolved, Iraq is clearly veering into a second sectarian war –- on top of the Sunni versus Sunni conflict waged by Iraqi tribes against al Qaeda.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s Iraq sources report that the Iraqi prime minister decided to take up the cudgels against his rival coreligionists in Basra after listening to US President Dick Cheney sing the praises of the radical Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr during his two-day visit a week ago.

The truce, which the Shiite cleric’s Medhi Army militia extended in February for a second six-month period, contributed to the post-surge decline in violence in Iraq.

One of the points the vice president hammered home in all his meetings - with US diplomats led by Ambassador Ryan Crocker, Iraqi commander Gen. David Petraeus and his command, and the Iraqi government and its prime minister - was the importance of bringing Shiite Sadrists back into government and the top echelons of power in Baghdad.

Cheney made it clear that their leader, Moqtada Sadr, four years ago America’s most unyielding foe in Iraq, is now perceived as the only strong Shiite leader capable and willing to come to terms with Sunni Arab politicians, who like Kurdish power brokers find him acceptable.



Maliki takes extreme umbrage against Washington



Sadr is moreover prepared to fight off Iranian expansion in the oil-rich South.

Notwithstanding the radical cleric’s harsh rhetoric against American “occupation forces” and his demand for their withdrawal, Cheney argued that, in the final reckoning, he was pragmatic enough to work with the Americans and the Saudis to contain Iran’s influence and presence. The cleric has been quoted as saying “Iraqi Shiism is preferable to Persian Shiism.”

Most recently, prime minister Maliki bent over backwards to lend the Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s epic visit to Baghdad on March 2 the character of a national holiday attended by millions of cheering Iraqi Shiites welcoming him in the streets of Baghdad.

As it turned out, Ahmadinejad’s cavalcade drove through nearly deserted streets. Moqtada Sadr had quietly told the community to stay at home, thus showing the prime minister humiliatingly who really governed the Shiite masses.

As Cheney flew out of Iraq, Maliki’s advisers warned DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s Baghdad sources that the Iraqi prime minister did not propose to take any of this lying down.

Monday, he abruptly took his bureau, his senior staff, his advisers and himself to Basra, along with 15,000 loyal troops. There and then, he launched war on rival Shiite militias.

His arrival in the oil town and the belligerent language he aimed at the Mehdi Army – alone of all the lawless groups which rule the roost there - left Sadr little choice but to fight back.

On the second day of the government offensive, he declared a civil disobedience campaign, in the form of a general strike in all the Shiite regions of Iraq.

The next day, as bloody battles spread outside Basra, 30 Sadr-allied lawmakers, the largest bloc in parliament, demanded the prime minister’s resignation and threatened a vote of no confidence in his government over its crackdown against their movement.

The prime minister responded by giving the Basra militias 72 hours to lay down their homes and surrender.

The Sadrists walked out of parliament.



Hizballah plants a joker in the Iraqi pack



The Iraqi prime minister finds himself at war not only with the Medhi Army, but a hodgepodge of Shiite groups all jockeying for control of the Basra region and its oil treasure. They are not always distinguishable from the smugglers and crime rings believed to illegally siphon off at least one-tenth of South Iraq’s oil, which accounts for 70 percent of the national export.

Three major Shiite parties, members of the Shiite umbrella United Iraqi Alliance, which dominates parliament, have a hefty stake in the region.

The Mehdi Army is the most popular, although it has split of late into factions, more than half of which still defer to Moqtada Sadr. They control ports, customs and customs police.

The Fadhila Party, whose leader Mohammed al-Waeli is governor of Basra, dominates the oil companies based in the region, elements of local security forces and port installations.

The Badr Brigade belongs to the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, SCIRI, which was founded in Tehran when Saddam Hussein ruled Iraq.

Its leader Abdul Aziz al-Hakim is closest of the three to prime minister Maliki and his Dawa Party.

The joker in the pack is the newest Shiite arrival to Iraq, the Hizballah Brigades of Iraq, which is supplied with orders, fighters, weapons and funds from the headquarters of its Lebanese parent, with the backing of the al Qods Brigades of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.

Hizballah’s new armed wing, unnoticed in the West, has set up operations in Baghdad, Nasiriyeh and Kut as well as Basra and its oil port.



The government offensive veers out of control



South Lebanon’s stewpot of conflicting forces also contains 20 or so major indigenous tribes which exercise a strong pull on local allegiances. At least one of these tribes runs its own oil smuggling network.

Maliki’s urge to show the Americans who’s the boss of Iraq’s Shiites overlays another strong motive: He cherishes an ambition to link South Iraq’s oil industry to that of South Iran to form the foundation for the two countries’ future strategic interdependence. He has been hindered in this scheme by the chaotic assortment of militias, gangs and tribes enjoying free rein in the region.

Washington would like to see this plan fade away altogether, but can hardly interfere directly while maintaining that it is up to the Iraqis themselves to decide on the disposition of their oil resources.

Equally, the Americans cannot openly object to Maliki exercising central authority in the unruly Basra region.

The Iraqi leader has craftily timed it for a couple of weeks before Ambassador Crocker and Gen. Petraeus deliver their latest report to Congress on the state of the Iraq war.

Maliki believes that his Basra venture, if it ends well, will leave them no choice but to hold it up as proof of their success in raising an Iraqi army capable of acting on its own to quell disorder in Iraq’s second largest city. The Americans can hardly admit it is a setback to their plans.

Like most things in Iraq, the battles raging in and around Basra, far from making this point, have quickly swung out of control. There is no knowing how it will end.

Two oil pipelines have already been damaged, with immediate effect on international oil prices.

Thursday, a bomb exploded underneath the Zubair-1 pipeline that sends crude oil from the Basra Zubair oil field to tanks for Iraq's two exporting terminals on the Gulf: al-Umaiya and Basra.

Tuesday night, a bomb damaged a domestic oil pipeline that links the Noor oil field in the southern Maysan province to the refinery in Basra.

For now, the prime minister does not look like bringing his expedition to a happy end.

Undeterred, he went on Iraqi state TV Thursday night vowing to fight to the end. "There will be no retreat!" he declared.

U.S. President George W. Bush, seeing political advantage in going along with Maliki’s effort, praised him for his "tough battle against militia fighters and criminals," citing it as evidence that Baghdad is taking advantage of security gains by U.S. forces and the “progress Iraqi forces made during the surge.”


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Saudis Prepare For the Worst
After Cheney Finally Buries the NIE’s Exoneration of Iran

In case anyone was left in doubt, US Vice President Richard Cheney charged Iran this week with trying to develop weapons-grade uranium.

He said to an ABC interviewer in Ankara Monday, March 24: "Obviously, they're also heavily involved in trying to develop nuclear weapons enrichment, the enrichment of uranium to weapons-grade levels.”

Two days earlier, Cheney departed Riyadh for Israel. As soon as he took off, King Abdullah rushed the Saudi Shura Council into urgent session to hear an alarming report, in the form of the King Abdul-Aziz City for Science and Technology’s proposals, which were based on “the probabilities of leaking nuclear and radiation hazards in case of unexpected nuclear attacks in Iran.”

The Shura Council discussed the report without reaching conclusions.

The US vice president undoubtedly shared with the Saudi king and the Omani ruler Sultan Qaboos, whom he also visited, the information he gave to the ABC interviewer.

According to DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s Gulf sources, he went further and let them know that Washington is not averse to direct action by any Gulf or Middle East force against Iran. The US, he indicated, would support such action by diplomatic and military means.

These rulers were allowed to infer from this statement that the Bush administration no longer views as credible the National Intelligence Estimate released last November, which forced the American military option off the table by concluding that Iran had suspended its covert weapons program in 2003.

Cheney also implied that Washington would not object to someone else exercising this option.



Radioactive fallout – a hot Gulf topic



border=0 v:shapes="_x0000_s1029">Highly credible sources in the Gulf stressed at the same time that on no occasion did Cheney state explicitly that America would attack Iran. The Saudi and Omani rulers may have taken this for granted, but it was never said outright. As for the Shura Council’s urgent need to discuss nuclear radiation, Saudi sources stress that in no way did it imply that Riyadh had solid information and a date for a prospective US attack on Iran.

Nonetheless, Cheney’s veiled comments set up a wave of jitters in the region, coming as the did on the heels of homeland defense and medical drills mounted by Oman, Kuwait and Bahrain to withstand Iranian missile attacks on their capitals and oil fields, or radioactive fallout from foreign strikes at Iranian nuclear sites.

The royal house took the opportunity to show the public that plans to protect the country for any contingency were in hand. The Shura Council session was called straight after the US vice president’s visit to Riyadh to bring anxieties out in the open and demonstrate that preparations had been made to defend the kingdom.

As for the US leaders’ talks in Israel, DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s military sources report that there is no doubt that the Iran issue dominated all conversations. This is apparent from his choice of interlocutors: prime minister Ehud Olmert, defense minister Ehud Barak, chief of staff Lt. Gen. Gaby Ashkenazi, Mossad director Meir Dagan and Military Intelligence-AMAN commander Maj. Gen. Amos Yadlin.



More US navy and air power head for Gulf



He wound up his visit by dining with all the heads of Israel’s defense and intelligence establishments at Barak’s private residence. This gave him the chance to wrap up all his business in Israel on such issues as Syria, Hizballah and Hamas, as well as Iran.

Three additional topics stood out in Cheney’s conversations with the Gulf rulers:

1. He encouraged them to conclude long-term accords with India, including nuclear cooperation. Without saying so outright, Cheney typically let his hosts know that Washington would not object to the Gulf nations and New Delhi concluding mutual defense pacts extending India’s nuclear shield to their region.

2. Although less than nine months remain for the current administration, Cheney said the Bush administration would look with favor on requests from Gulf governments for additional military assistance, and make every effort to fill applications before the January 2009 transition of the presidency.

3. The Vice President promised the US Navy’s and Air Force presence in the Persian Gulf would be expanded in the coming weeks. The American Fifth Fleet’s command base in Bahrain would be augmented with additional aircraft carriers and warships.

Five days later, on Thursday, March 27, it was announced that the USS Abraham Lincoln had departed March 13 from Everett, Washington, for a scheduled seven-month deployment to the Persian Gulf to join the USS Harry Truman. The group first made a port visit to San Diego to load its air wings, extra equipment and 1,500 more crew members before embarking on its journey to the Persian Gulf.


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Bush and Mubarak Presidencies Wind Down
Leaving a Black Hole of Terror in Sinai and Gaza

Two significant state visits are on the line: Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s White House trip in the second half of April and US President George W. Bush’s visit to Cairo in May. These visits are scheduled to take place in the twilight of both their presidencies, depending on Cairo’s delivery of a security package for lawless Sinai, terror-ridden Gaza and Israel-Palestinian peace talks.

Cairo is bidding for US help and Israeli compliance for lifting its ambitious scheme off the ground and keeping it alive in the coming three weeks. That is a tall order for an extremely tricky package enclosing a delicate set of interlocking informal deals which are still in negotiation.

Given so many uncertainties, Egyptian defense minister Gen. Hussein Tantawi has just spent an unusually long seven days in Washington, about which both hosts and guests kept mum. He was later joined by his colleague, intelligence minister Gen. Omar Suleiman.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s military sources report their errand as being to prepare the way for Mubarak to visit the White House in the second half of April as guest of President Bush.

Mubarak will be the first Arab ruler to take leave of the US president in person.

Seen from Cairo, Egyptian president’s American trip will also initiate international events marking his own impending farewell from the presidential palace after 28 years’ occupancy, during which he maintained friendly ties with four US presidents.

He has not fixed a public date for stepping down. Some of his advisers guess it will take place soon after Bush’s successor is sworn in next January. Also kept officially vague is the name of Mubarak’s successor and the way the transition is to be implemented. But it is common knowledge that the baton will be passed to his son, Gemal (Jimmy) Mubarak, whose appointment will be ratified by popular referendum.

The exchanged state visits are meanwhile hedged round with a thicket of thorns.



Purging Sinai of terrorists



Their tight schedules hinge on several pre-conditions, one being that Egypt’s military, security and intelligence services succeed in a few short weeks in cleansing Sinai’s rugged mountains and deserts of the terrorist and paramilitary forces roaming at large there.

They include al Qaeda cells, Palestinian Hamas and Jihad Islami bands and smuggling rings using the largely uninhabited peninsula as a thoroughfare for the transfer of weapons and other war materiel to Middle Eastern, East African and Persian Gulf destinations.

Some rings are run by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards intelligence, some by al Qaeda, others by Muslim crime rings based in Europe.

The Gaza Strip is integral to this problem and part of the package Mubarak hopes to wrap up.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s Washington sources report that if he can deliver, he will be able to receive Bush, when he is in the Middle East for Israel’s 60th anniversary celebrations in May, for a state visit to Egypt. It will have to take place at the Sinai resort of Sharm el-Sheikh since both American and Egyptian intelligence warn that Cairo is too dangerous.

After failing in this task in the four years since al Qaeda’s first attack on Sinai’s holiday resorts killed 32 tourists, Mubarak will need a conjuring trick to pull it off now.

This was the main issue tossed back and forth between the Egyptian ministers and US officials led by National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley in Washington.

The fact that Gen. Tantawi led these talks signaled that failure and the end of the eight-year reign of Gen. Suleiman and his intelligence services as the security bulwark of the Mubarak regime. The reins have passed to the army and its chief, who has long maintained that Suleiman was not up on military matters. Tantawi also argued that the intelligence minister’s handling of Sinai was misconceived and lax, impairing not only Egypt’s strategic grip on Sinai but also its ability to keep the Suez Canal safe.

Monday, March 24, a rare shooting incident on the vital waterway very nearly got out of hand.



Safeguarding Suez shipping



The US Navy's chartered ship Global Patriot was preparing to enter the Suez Canal after dark on its way to the Mediterranean, when it was approached by a small Egyptian motorboat. The Fifth Fleet, which did not mention casualties, said “The ship warned the small boats – via bridge to bridge radio and a series of warning steps – to turn away. One small boat continued to approach and shots were fired.

Cairo reported an Egyptian trader on the motorboat, one of a swarm trying to sell goods to passing ships, was killed and two others wounded.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s counter-terror sources report that security in and around Suez has deteriorated so sharply that American ships navigating the canal are constantly on guard for attacks by explosive boats piloted by suicide bombers. Aware that al Qaeda cells are scattered through the towns on Suez shores, US craft have standing orders to shoot any small boats coming too close after warning them to move off.

Tantawi brought with him to Washington a new plan for Sinai-Suez security, drawn up by the Egyptian military command.

He proposed marking the peninsula off into 10 squares. In each, an Egyptian military, police and intelligence team would be posted to crack down on local terrorist networks.

Joint US-Egyptian naval and air forces would secure Sinai’s Suez, Red Sea and Mediterranean coastlines. They would cooperate in operations to purge the smuggling racketeers, missile and firearms gunrunners and the bands of terrorists entering and exiting Sinai at will.

The picturesque and apparently serene sea and diving resorts would be fenced in and armed with surveillance sensors for tracking illicit traffic.

Since this plan called for adjustments in the Egyptian-Israeli 1979 peace treaty which stipulated Sinai’s demilitarization, Israel input was called for. The Egyptian ministers reported that Ret. Gen. Amos Gilead, political adviser at the defense ministry, had paid several visits to Cairo with a group of Israeli officers to inspect the plan. They received the impression that the Olmert government, to give Egypt a chance to finish its clean-up of Sinai, was quietly willing to allow a troop build-up beyond the quota stipulated in the peace treaty. It had also consented to suspending Sinai’s demarcation of A, B and C areas - and their various li mitations on the number and movements of Egyptian security personnel - up until the end of 2008.



Dealing with Hamas without recognition



Israel’s condition for these concessions was a deal with Cairo to contain Palestinian missile and terror aggression from the Gaza Strip.

According to DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s Jerusalem and Washington sources, all the parties concerned concur that Gaza is the spanner in the works, not least because the definition of its status varies from one party to the other.

American circles close to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, and a number of Egyptian officers define the situation thus:

With no breakthrough in sight in Israel’s peace talks with the Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas, the US administration might be advised to review its negative attitude toward the Palestinian fundamentalist terrorists and, working through Egypt, seek an accommodation that would satisfy Israel.

The difficulty here is that indirect US recognition of a terrorist group, a problematic world precedent, would be implicit in this arrangement.

According to the circle around Rice, the Israeli officials involved in the Cairo dialogue are dead set against any sort of recognition - but not averse to a long-term ceasefire and the partial lifting of the blockade of Hamas-ruled Gaza, so long as the arrangement is not formalized.

Israeli circles confirmed that prime minister Ehud Olmert and defense minister Ehud Barak regard an unwritten, unacknowledged truce with Hamas preferable to Israel’s reoccupation of the main part of the Gaza Strip to halt Palestinian attacks.

This new Israeli openness accounts for the three weeks of virtual truce between Israel and Hamas and the IDF’s abrupt interruption of its Hot Winter operation in mid-course on March 3.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s counter-terror sources stress that if this arrangement was confirmed, it would be the first time the United States or Israel had agreed to participate in a deal under fire with a terrorist group, without requiring the dismantlement of its infrastructure.



Completing three Herculean tasks



Time for these chancy moves is running out fast.

The Hamas imbroglio is further complicated by Egypt’s local elections on April 8.

Once again the regime is contending with the chronic threat by the Muslim Brotherhood, of which Hamas is the Palestinian armed wing, to sweep an election.

Mubarak had special committees set up to whittle down the 5,200 Brotherhood candidates to 483, so pre-empting an almost certain landslide. To prevent protesters rioting in the streets, which are already restless over the rising price of bread, the president ordered his security services to impose order with an iron fist.

The usual method to achieve this in Egypt is by mass arrests. Our Cairo sources report that thousands of Muslim Brotherhood members have been thrown into jail including 1,000 disqualified election candidates. Their leader, Muhammad Mahdi Akef has warned that an explosion is imminent.

Cairo believes that one way to placate the Muslim Brotherhood might be to ease restraints on Hamas, which it needs to do anyway in the negotiations for an indirect deal with Israel. Earlier this week, Egypt released the last batch of Hamas gunmen rounded up in Sinai. More concessions to Hamas may be in store. If the Brotherhood refuses to be pacified, Mubarak may postpone the elections.

But for now, he needs to get a deal on Sinai and Gaza, however tenuous, in the bag in time for his White House trip, i.e. within two weeks, to be hailed by the administration as the world leader who cracked three Herculean problems, the Black Hole of Sinai, the Gaza impediment and the status of Hamas.

To be heralded as a hero by the Arab world, the Egyptian president must do more: Hamas must be brought into a security accord leading to the patching up of its quarrel with Abbas’ Fatah and accord on a Palestinian unity government.

Mubarak believes the Israelis may be persuaded to go along with this, as long as its concurrence is not formalized in documents.

But what if one of the elements drops out and the package falls apart, what then?

Mubarak’s Washington visit depends on his not arriving empty-handed, and so does the Bush trip to the Middle East.


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Half an Arab Summit
Plagued by a Semi-Boycott, Damascus Lines Its Borders with Troops

Bashar Assad has inexplicably responded to the partial boycott of the Arab League “summit” taking place in Damascus Friday and Saturday, March 29-30, by lining up army units on Syria’s borders with Iraq, Lebanon and Israel, as well as pushing contingents across the border into Lebanon proper.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s military sources report that a group of Syrian armored divisions has been posted along the Beirut-Damascus highway at Zabadani, under the command of the president’s younger brother, Maher Assad, commander of the presidential guard.

Last Monday, DEBKAfile’s military sources (see HOT POINTS below) revealed that the bulk of Palestinian terrorist forces under Syrian and Iranian command had been shifted out of the Damascus area and sent into Lebanon too, taking up battle positions in the Beqaa Valley.

Another 10,000 Syrian troops have been positioned at Kurdish centers along the Iraqi border following last week’s riots in Qamishli on the Kurdish New Year, in which several Kurds were killed.

Syrian forward positions on the Israeli border have also been beefed up.

Finally, military patrols have been posted in all of Syria’s main cities kitted out for subduing riots.

This rush of military activity appears to denote the Assad regime’s extreme nervousness as it prepares to host reluctant Arab governments, most of whom prefer to send junior officials rather than top men.

It also demonstrates that three years after being thrown out of Lebanon, Syrian forces are still going strong in the country, in the face of Security Council resolutions, the efforts of the United States and France and the extreme displeasure of Arab rulers, led by Saudi Arabia.

It is the main reason why the Damascus conference will be attended by the smallest number of Arab rulers in Arab League summit history. The Saudi and Jordanian Kings Abdullah as well as well as Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak were also deterred by the prospect of Assad hosting with full honors the Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

As we write these lines, the only top men whose presence in Damascus is assured are Libyan ruler Muammar Qaddafi and President Abdallah Salah of Yemen.

Even Tehran is only sending its foreign minister Manouchehr Mottaki.

Lebanon is boycotting the event to punish Damascus for forcing the country to live without a president for five months.

US Secretary of State Condoleezza will on hand in the Middle East during the conference, mainly to make sure that Mahmoud Abbas at the head of the Palestinian delegation does not stray from Washington’s side on peace talks with Israel.


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Terror – A Paying Concern
Turkey’s Kurdish PKK – Terrorists-cum-Mafia

The fallout from the terror campaign waged by Turkey’s Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) transcends a single country; it directly affects Iraq, Europe, as well as the United States.

After the recent Turkish incursion of northern Iraqi Kurdistan to crush PKK havens was abruptly curtailed by Washington, US Vice President Richard Cheney made a detour to the Iraqi Kurdistan capital of Irbil during his visit to Baghdad earlier this month. He went there to warn President Masoud Barzani it was time to put a stop to PKK terror operations against Turkey and deny them sanctuary in Kurdistan.

If the Iraqi Kurds did not take action before the spring thaw in the Kurdish mountains, Cheney could not promise PKK bases would be safe from further Turkish incursions.

The Kurdish leaders understood him to be advising them to undertake the task themselves, rather than leaving it to Turkish troops.

Turkey’s high command has a precise breakdown of the outlawed Kurdish Workers Party’s sources of revenue.

Of concern to Europe in particular are disclosures made at a recent lecture by Gen. Ergin Saygun, deputy chief of the Turkish General Staff. He reported that the PKK has a yearly income of 400-500 million euros, which is obtained from drug dealing, human trafficking, money laundering, smuggling and donations, mainly in Europe.

He described the Kurdish group as “a terrorist organization which is also an organized criminal mafia.” It subsists on revenue from illegal sources – according to Saygun, they are arms trafficking, not only for their own fighting men but also for fellow terrorist and criminal organizations.

About terrorist groups in general, the Turkish general had this to say: “They claim they represent ethnic groups or great belief groups. So they carry out their activities in the name of the ideologies of Islam, people’s independence, minority rights, Jihad, democratic rights and freedoms, thereby seeking legitimacy for their activities. We should not fall into this trap.”

DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s counter-terror sources report: While the US has provided real-time intelligence for Turkish attacks on PKK bases in northern Iraq, little attention has been paid to its activities on the European continent, where most of the funding for the Kurdish Workers’ Party’s attacks is raised by fronts and criminal networks.



Funds raised in Europe by 400 affiliates



According to recent NATO figures, the illicit narcotics trade is the most profitable. It ranges from production in Pakistan and distillation in Iraq to street sales in Europe. This recalls the Taliban of Afghanistan and the Hizballah of Lebanon, both of which makes a pretty penny off their countries’ poppy fields

The PKK’s second most profitable activity is human trafficking.

According to Turkish authorities, the Kurdish terrorists use a network of 400 affiliates in Europe – mainly in Germany – to raise funds through legitimate or semi-legitimate commercial activities and donations.

The network includes affiliate or sympathizer organizations, such as the Confederation of Kurdish Associations in Europe (KON-KURD, headquartered in Brussels) and the International Kurdish Businessmen Union (KAR-SAZ, in Rotterdam).

The PKK also has a vast European propaganda and fundraising network that includes two news agencies, four television stations, thirteen radio stations, ten newspapers, nineteen periodicals, and three publishing houses.

Revenues from its criminal activities and fronts pay the group's weapons purchases in Europe. Between 1984 and 2006, Turkey confiscated a total of 40,045 PKK weapons, on most of which identifying marks had been deleted. Nevertheless, some were traced to Italy, Germany, Belgium, Hungary, and Russia.

Moreover, of the 8,015 mines captured by Turkey, 4,857 came from Italy and 2,268 from Russia and the ex-Soviet republics.

Such large quantities of weapons, often stored in military depots, should not have disappeared without alerting the authorities. The British Foreign Office acknowledged in January 2008 that the PKK and its affiliate organizations had been active in Britain and other European countries since 2001. As a result, London announced that "foreign terrorist organizations would not be allowed to exploit the territories of the United Kingdom to fundraise any more."

Most European states have also officially recognized the PKK as a terrorist organization. Accordingly, they are taking some concrete steps against the group. For example, in January 2008, a local Berlin court found a Turkish citizen guilty of leading an underground PKK cell in Bavaria since 1994 and sentenced him to nearly three years in prison.

Clearly, the Americans feel it is high time to deal seriously with the PKK - not just for the sake of Ankara but to curb its criminal activities in Europe and the region.


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HOT POINTS
A Digest of DEBKAfile Round-the-Clock Exclusives in the Weeks Ending March 27, 2008


Merkel’s Israel visit highlights defense commitment, but no support for showdown with Iran



16 March: German Chancellor Angela Merkel arrives in Israel Sunday, accompanied by seven of her top cabinet ministers. She will launch joint German-Israel cabinet-level consultations to take place in the two capitals in turn once a year and Tuesday, become the first German chancellor to address the Israeli parliament. Her four-day trip honors Israel’s 60th anniversary.

DEBKAfile comments: This initiative marks the Merkel government’s recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. At the same time, the chancellor, while promising pressure on Tehran, is known to hold fast against an extreme showdown with Iran over its covert military nuclear program. Her statement on the eve of her trip - "The threats to which the Israeli state is exposed are also threats to us"- neatly bridges the two positions.



Israel A Force may buy vertical-takeoff planes to dodge Hizballah-Hamas rockets



17 March. The expanding Palestinian and Lebanese Hizballah’s missile threats to its southern and northern air bases have persuaded Israeli’s Air Force to consider switching its procurement plans from 100 US F-35A stealth jets to the F-35B Short Takeoff and Vertical Landing (STOVL) version, designed to serve the US Marine Corps when under fire.

Israel’s southern and northern air bases have come within range of rockets from Hizballah in Lebanon and Hamas from the Gaza Strip, respectively, and possibly from the West Bank too. “Air base survivability is no longer hypothetical,” said one retired air force general.



Only 4 percent of Israelis support Olmert’s policy of restraint towards Hamas



18 March. The “Peace Index” survey conducted in February 2008 also found that no more than 30 percent of Israelis believed the government headed by Ehud Olmert could be trusted to uphold national security. The survey was conducted by Prof. Ephraim Yaari and Tamar Herman of Tel Aviv University’s Peace Research Institute. They also reported that 71 percent of those canvassed were opposed to Israel accepting an informal truce with Hamas and 53 percent said Palestinian rockets was not a factor in their decision to live in Israel.



New poll shows rising Palestinian support for violence – report



19 March. Palestinian pollster Khalil Shikaki told the New York Times in Ramallah that 84 percent of the Palestinians polled supported the March 6 attack on the Mercaz Harav yeshiva in which 8 young students were killed,.

He reported 64 percent supported the Hamas’ missile offensive against Israeli towns and 75 percent though the negotiations between Ehud Olmert and Mahmoud Abbas were without benefit and should be terminated.

Shikaki said he was shocked by the survey taken last week because it showed greater Palestinian support for violence than any other he had conducted in the past 15 years.



US Military Option on Iran Is Back on the Table



19 March: The talks US Vice President Dick Cheney is holding in Oman, Saudi Arabia and Jerusalem focus on two aspects of the Iranian nuclear threat:

1. The Bush administration’s decision to distance itself from the National Intelligence Estimate released last December. Its conclusion that Iran’s nuclear arms program was shelved in 2003 and so rendered America’s military option superfluous is now deemed a mistake.

2. The administration now buys British, German, French and Israeli intelligence estimates that Iran is indeed pressing forward with programs for building nuclear weapons, warheads and ballistic missiles for their delivery.

The vice president will listen closely to his hosts’ ideas about joint efforts for containing Iran’s aggressive expansionist thrusts across the Persian Gulf and Middle East and halting its progress towards nuclear armaments.

The vice president’s choice of capitals for his tour is a pointer to the fact that the military option, off since December, may be on again.

Oman hosts the big American air bases, which are the core of the defense system for the Strait of Hormuz and the US Navy, Marine and Air Force units deployed in the Persian Gulf.

Saudi Arabia is the senior Gulf and Arabian trendsetter and the key to pan-Arab endorsement for a US offensive against Tehran. Riyadh has opposed military action until now.

Israel is the only regional nation willing to actively participate in an attack on Iran’s nuclear sites, and its military has been putting together plans for going it alone.

Turkey is a pivotal element in any war plan because American warplanes and missiles heading for Iran will have to transit its airspace and take off from air bases on its soil.



Hizballah more than trebles its rocket arsenal to 40,000



22 March: Hizballah’s heavy armament will figure large in the talks US Vice President Dick Cheney is holding with Israeli leaders on the Iranian nuclear threat

DEBKAfile’s military sources disclose that Hizballah has built up its rocket arsenal to three and-a-half times its pre-2006 Lebanon War stocks. Some of the 40,000 rockets – most of Syrian manufacture in recent months - can hit Israel targets as far south as Beersheba.

Not only is Tel Aviv within range, but Hizballah and the Palestinian Hamas in Gaza can between them cover most of Israel except for its southernmost tip at Eilat.

Syria has also been sending Hizballah quantities of anti-air weapons, including shoulder-borne rockets and scores of Russian-made anti-aircraft ZSU-100 automatic 14.4 mm caliber cannon, which are most effective against low-flying aircraft, helicopters and drones.

On his arrival, Cheney pledged that his government would not pressure Israel to take steps that threatened its security. "America's commitment to Israel's security is enduring and unshakable, as is Israel's right to protect itself always against terrorism, rocket attacks and other attacks from forces dedicated to Israel's destruction."



Cheney discusses Iran’s nuclear threat and expansion drive with Israeli officials



23 March: The visiting US Vice President joined thousands of pilgrims from around the world at an Easter service in Jerusalem Sunday, March 23.

Israel’s opposition leader Binyamin Netanyahu reported that the fate of Jerusalem came up in their discussion of the Iranian threat and Tehran’s pursuit of forward bases in the region, from Gaza to Lebanon, including Jerusalem. Any part of the city evacuated by Israel would be overrun by Hamas, Iran and its affiliates, Netanyahu warned. They would pose a menace to peace, Israeli’s security and the freedom of worship for millions of non-Islam believers who now flock to the city’s holy sites.

On his arrival Saturday night for two days of talks, Cheney said the US wants a new beginning for the Palestinians, but will never pressure Israel to take steps that would jeopardize its security.

The Vice President’s most important discussion - centering on Iran and its heavy rearmament of Hizballah (40,000 extended-range surface rockets and Russian-made anti-aircraft weapons) - takes place with defense minister Ehud Barak. Cheney has also asked to meet the Mossad director and the chief of staff.



US and Saudi Arabia agree to bring oil prices down to $85-90



24 March: DEBKAfile’s Gulf sources disclose that US Vice President Dick Cheney persuaded Saudi leaders to raise production in order to curb rocketing world oil prices, during their talks in Riyadh on Saturday, March 22.

King Abdullah thereupon convened the Supreme Council for Petroleum and Mineral Affairs Sunday, to underline the kingdom’s commitment to stabilizing the international oil market “by ensuring adequate supply.”

While the extent of this downward trend is hard to predict, oil producers are looking favorably at prices of $85-90 in the short term, which are realistic given the protracted US dollar slump.



Barak: Israel’s army and intelligence poised for instant response to Hizballah attack



24 March: DEBKAfile’s military sources report that Israeli defense minister Ehud Barak placed the armed forces on guard in view of indications that Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah may seriously intend making good on his threat of “open war” against Israel, whom he accuses of the Feb. 12 killing of Imad Mughniyeh.

The Israeli Air Force, according to our sources, has prepared two command and control airplanes capable of reacting to terrorist attacks in places far from Israel. Magen David Adom nationwide has doubled its usual complement of ambulances and crews on standby.

Barak was reacting to fast-moving events across the northern border.

1. Syria has pushed Palestinian terrorist groups under its shared control with Iran – an estimated 3,000-strong – into the Lebanese Beqaa Valley. They have taken up battle positions and delivery of large quantities of the latest weapons and ammunition.

2. Syria has speeded up arms shipments to Hizballah – notably anti-aircraft weapons.

3. Syrian armored divisions are massed along its Lebanese border.

Israel’s military chiefs read these moves as meaning that Hizballah and Syria are preparing to attack Israel and absorb reprisals. They are taking into account large-scale, multiple-casualty attack on an overseas Israeli or Jewish target coordinated with strikes inside Israel.



Cheney: Hamas, with Syrian-Iranian support wants to torpedo peace



24 March: Before heading for Turkey, Monday, March 24, US Vice President Dick Cheney met Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert in Jerusalem a second time. Sunday night, defense minister Ehud Barak told the Vice President that Iran’s military buildup endangers the stability of the region and the entire world and that no option should be taken off the table regarding its nuclear program.

In Ramallah, Palestinian leaders asked Cheney to pressure Israel to halt settlement expansion. He responded that terror and rockets against Israel not only killed innocent people but also Palestinian hopes for a state.



Top Hamas missile expert in group released by Egypt



25 March: DEBKAfile’s military sources report Hamas terror heavyweights were in the last batch Egypt released of 124 operatives captured in Sinai after Hamas smashed through the border wall earlier this year. Among them were Nafez Abu Najj, Hamas’ director of missile production, Saber Darimali, commander of its leaders’ guard unit, and at least two deputy heads of Hamas intelligence. Their return to Gaza was a concession made by Cairo to the Palestinian jihadists amid truce negotiations in which Israel is an indirect partner, despite its denials.

Officers of Israel’s southern command voiced dismay at the government’s failure to intercede and prevent the return to the fray of the hard core of Hamas’ command echelon. The 124 Hamas operatives were picked up on their way back from big purchasing expeditions for missile and arms for smuggling into the Gaza Strip along with Hamas fighters back from training in Iran and Syria.



Mixed signals from Jerusalem ahead of Rice visit



26 March: US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice arrives in Israel over the weekend before the Arab Summit opens in Damascus. She will make sure of Israeli concessions to Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas to make it worth his while to stick to the US-promoted peace track.

Israel’s defense minister Ehud Barak has announced permission to deploy in Jenin, a West Bank terror stronghold, 600 Palestinian security men trained in Jordan under a US program. He will also authorize the delivery of 20 APCs from Russia for Abbas’ security forces and may also remove a couple of temporary roadblocks. Easing travel restrictions for Palestinian businessmen, he described as “a calculated risk” to improve the cl imate of talks with Palestinians. But he stressed that Israel will retain overall responsibility for West Bank security.

IRAQ - Basra fight widens rift among Shiite factions

IRAQ - Basra fight widens rift among Shiite factions

NOTE FROM TGR: Should we be looking for an American action against Iran, military or otherwise, claiming that Iran is the cause of the current outbreak of violence in Iraq? The USA would need to argue that Sunni, Shiite, tribal, Kurdish, etc. splits are not the evident cause of what is now happening.



csmonitor.com - The Christian Science Monitor Online

posted March 27, 2008 at 5:04 p.m. EST - http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0328/p25s01-woiq.html

Basra fight widens rift among Shiite factions

In Baghdad Thursday, thousands protested the Iraqi government's battle with the Mahdi Army militia loyal to Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr.

By Sam Dagher | Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor
and Abdul-Karim al-Samer | Contributor to The Christian Science Monitor



Baghdad and Basra, Iraq



(Photograph)



Mahdi Army fighters loyal to Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr stood in Basra, Iraqi, on Thursday. Fighting raged in the oil-rich city for the third straight day and the militiamen continued to control the streets.
AP



(Photograph)



In Baghdad on Thursday, thousands of Moqtada al-Sadr supporters protested against the Iraqi government crackdown on the Mahdi Army militia. Many carried posters of the Shiite cleric and chanted “No, no to America.”
Ceerwan Aziz/Reuters

Moqtada al-Sadr's powerful Shiite movement upped the ante Thursday in its battle with Iraqi government forces. Militiamen loyal to the young cleric refused to back down in their fight in the southern oil-rich city of Basra and his foot soldiers in Baghdad took to the streets in a show of force, calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.

The clock continues to tick away on Mr. Maliki's 72-hour ultimatum for Mr. Sadr's Mahdi Army militia to lay down its weapons in Basra or face all-out assault. At the moment, witnesses in Basra say there appears to be no sign of any letup in fighting between government forces and the Shiite gunmen, who are said to still control 75 percent of the city.

"We have made up our minds and we have waged this war and we will continue till the end. No retreat, no compromise, no accords," said Maliki during a meeting with local tribal leaders in Basra. He remains in the city to oversee the battle there that has killed at least 50 people so far.

The continuation of fighting marks a serious escalation in a long-simmering battle between Iraq's rival Shiite factions that pits Sadr, whose influence extends into key government ministries and spans across Baghdad and nine southern provinces, against factions allied to Maliki's Dawa Party such as the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq and its affiliate the Badr Organization.

The fight in Basra is also having global implications. After news broke that one of Iraq's main oil export pipelines from Basra exploded, cutting at least a third of the exports from the city that provides 80 percent of the government's revenue, oil prices jumped more than $1 a barrel, Reuters reported.

However, according to Jamal Hamed al-Fraih, spokesman for the South Oil Company, it was a pipeline feeding crude oil to one of the main refineries in the province that was struck. Mr. Fraih said that a fire that raged for hours Thursday has come under control but that now the main refinery of Shuaiba has come to a standstill because of a power outage.

"Oil exports are still flowing but they are less than a few days ago," he said adding that oil exports from Basra, Iraq's main outlet, had been averaging 1.5 million barrels a day before the start of fighting.

Fraih also said the company is bracing for the worst. He said all administrative offices, including the headquarters in the city, were closed with extra security forces mobilized to protect them. "Yes there is a great risk that company property maybe attacked or looted."

Elsewhere in Basra, one of Saddam Hussein's former regime palaces – occupied by British forces until September when they pulled out to an airbase on the outskirts of the city – now serves as one of the main bases of Iraqi government forces and was hit with heavy mortar fire.

The US-funded Arab television station Al Hurra reported that a contingent of US Marines was now in Basra's city center and involved mainly in sniper operations. This could not be immediately confirmed with the US military. But several residents reported that they saw snipers posted on roof tops especially in the neighborhood of Tamimyah.

The US military has so far insisted that only US advisers and so-called "transition teams" embedded with Iraqi troops are in Basra. Coalition aircraft are providing air cover and surveillance support.

Al Sharqiya TV, a private Iraqi station often critical of the Iraqi government, showed what it said were exclusive images of masked militiamen – some of them in military fatigues – parading in Humvees they had seized from Iraqi government forces in Basra. The words "Mahdi Army" and "Mahdi's Followers" were spray painted in black on the white-washed vehicles. There was also footage of what looked like the remains of burnt Iraqi Army vehicles. The militiamen chanted and danced, flashing victory signs.

Yahya al-Taiee, a Basra-based lawyer and member of the Sadr movement, said many Iraqi soldiers have surrendered themselves and their vehicles to the Mahdi Army. His claims could not be immediately verified.

"The fight will go on until the end. We will do whatever Sayyed [an honorific] Moqtada orders," Mr. Taiee said, as the sound of explosions echoed in Hay al-Hussein, one of the militia's Basra strongholds.

A rare interview with Sadr is scheduled to be broadcast on Al Jazeera Saturday. He has been out of public view since May of last year.

Basra residents contacted say they fear a prolonged battle. Many have been without water or electricity since Tuesday. In some areas, hospitals and medical care was unavailable. Food was also running out.

"It's all a grab for oil and power. They couldn't care less about what happens to people," grumbled a man interviewed in the Basra neighborhood of Junaina. He gave his name as Abu Hussein.

Violence in Basra has spread to parts of the capital and other towns and cities between Baghdad and the southern oil city. Since Wednesday, at least 60 people have been killed in violence in Hilla, 60 miles south of Baghdad.

The Associated Press cited police officials as saying that 40 gunmen had been killed and 75 others wounded in clashes in Kut, southeast of Baghdad.

In Baghdad itself, fighting involving US and Iraqi forces continued for a second day in Sadr City, the Mahdi Army militia's stronghold, with at least 40 people reported killed. Gunmen kidnapped Tahseen al-Shaikhly, an Iraqi civilian spokesman for Baghdad security operations, after killing three of his bodyguards and torching his house in the neighborhood of Ameen, a Mahdi Army stronghold in southeastern Baghdad.

Salvos of rockets and mortars, mostly originating from Sadr City, also continued to slam into the heavily fortified Green Zone, home to the US Embassy and the Iraqi government.

In the Kadhimiyah district of Baghdad, the location of a revered Shiite shrine, thousands of Sadr supporters marched through the streets as police stood back, apparently concerned about a violent response. Small, angry mobs broke away from the main demonstration and burned photos of Maliki against an image of a US flag.

"After Saddam's infidel regime collapsed ... many parties pretending to have been in the opposition and to [be speaking] in the name of the oppressed climbed to the top on our shoulders. After they have achieved their goals they became mere slaves and puppets in the hands of the occupier," Mazen al-Saadi, one of the turbaned clerics leading the march, told the crowds. "We call for the ouster of Maliki and his government."

"No, no to America," screamed the crowd.









CNN.com






















Analysis: Al-Sadr in trouble, Iraq headed for meltdown

* Story Highlights

* CNN analysts assess what Basra fighting says about Iraq's future

* Michael Ware: Iran fosters clashes among rival Shiite factions

* Michael Holmes: Crisis is opportunity for central government to stand up

* Sheppard: Breakdown could lead to political chaos, loss of gains from surge

(CNN) -- The fighting among Shiite militias and government troops in Basra is a glimpse of Iraq's future, and pivotal cleric Muqtada al-Sadr is in deep trouble, according to two CNN correspondents and a CNN military analyst.

The fiery religious leader has a loyal following in Baghdad's Sadr City neighborhood and other enclaves thanks to generous social programs, but his political movement, his Mehdi Army militia and the cease-fire al-Sadr recently extended are no match for Iranian intrigue, according to CNN's experts.

"Al-Sadr is involved in a very complicated relationship with the Iranians," said CNN Baghdad correspondent Michael Ware. "The Iranians do provide funding and support for his militia, yet at the same time they're trying to rein him in and get him to adopt a certain political agenda, which from time to time he resists."

Ware said Iran wants to use al-Sadr's populist base to advance its agenda in Iraq. "However, they don't want to see him get too big for his boots or to rise to a position where they can no longer have sway over him."

Iran has weakened al-Sadr by encouraging dissension within his Mehdi Army and backing hardliners -- known as the Special Groups -- who break away and keep up the fight against the U.S. occupation, Ware said.

"Iran's very good at putting pressure on you, forcing you to split, and anything that squeezes out the side, Iran picks up and turns into hardline factions," Ware said. "That's exactly what's happened to Muqtada. He's had purge after purge after purge of belligerent commanders, and they've all been swept up by Iran.

"And now the most lethal attacks on U.S. forces, the most coordinated attacks on U.S. forces, the most daring attacks on U.S. forces in the country are committed by Iranian-backed breakaway elements of Muqtada's militia faction." Learn more about the Mehdi Army and other key players in Basra »

The violence in Basra -- which has spread to Shiite areas throughout the country, including Baghdad -- is a kind of fighting Americans are unaccustomed to seeing, said retired Air Force Maj. Gen. Donald Sheppard, CNN's senior military analyst. VideoWatch the violence multiply »

"This is intra-Shia. This is not Sunni vs. Shia, this is not civil war, this is not sectarian violence, it's intra-Shia politics for control of the government," he said.

Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki is trying to hold together his political alliance -- an alliance that includes the political wings of the militias he's fighting, Sheppard said.

"If this alliance breaks apart because of the fighting, you've got chaos within the Parliament," Sheppard said. VideoWatch Sheppard assess the military situation »

So far, al-Sadr has resisted the temptation to end the Mehdi Army cease-fire, which, combined with the simultaneous increase in U.S. forces last year, had brought a sharp reduction in violence.

If the truce ends, "the success of the surge is going to be hugely in doubt," said CNN International correspondent Michael Holmes. "I've always said, yes the surge has reduced violence in Baghdad, but you have to put it in context: Why has it reduced the violence, and what else has happened?

"It's a lot like squeezing a balloon, as a general told me: You squeeze it in Baghdad, it pops out elsewhere. Where you've seen a lot of the militiamen go, a lot of the insurgents go, is to the south and mainly to the north, which is why you're seeing a lot of action up in Mosul."

And the Mehdi Army and Badr Brigades -- the principal combatants in the Basra region -- are hardly the only militias at arms in Iraq. Indeed there are dozens, each with its own political, social, religious and military agenda, Ware noted. VideoWatch Ware look ahead to a post-American Iraq »

"What worries me the most is all of the good work that we've done with the surge, spreading higher levels of security throughout Iraq, the people slowly gaining confidence in their own security forces -- that could all break down," Sheppard said.

"It could all break down because of Basra, it could break down because al-Sadr basically ends the truce and fighting starts all over the country in the Shia areas.

"This is very, very serious and it could all go wrong for the United States as we try to extricate ourselves. It could go wrong in many, many ways and cause everything to come apart there."

But Holmes suggested there's a chance al-Maliki and Iraq will survive this crisis.

"This could be a good test of Nuri al-Maliki and the security forces. They're going to have to stand up at some point; maybe this is a time to see how they do."

Ware doubts the security forces can prevent a meltdown.

"This is a window into the future of Iraq after the American withdrawal," Ware said.

"What many people suggest is that we're looking at a situation that will be akin to Lebanon in the 1980s, with vicious, well-armed militia proxy wars where all the factions are supported by one foreign sponsor or another.

"But this will be Lebanon on steroids."









Times Online

From The Times

March 27, 2008
Iraqi militia success means Britain must fight – or admit failure

Richard Beeston, Foreign Editor

The battle for Basra now raging on the streets of Iraq’s second city shows every sign of turning into a nightmare for the dwindling British forces based near by.

For months Britain has been quietly reducing its presence in Iraq with the intention of pulling out altogether. First it withdrew last September from the Basra Palace base in the city centre and moved its forces to the airport. Then it changed its tactical role to “overwatch”, a vague term for supporting the Iraqi security forces nominally in control of the port city.

The intention was to withdraw British forces from frontline duties and concentrate on training Iraqis and offering support when needed. But the problem from the outset has been the failure of the Iraqi army and police to take control of the city, a mission that British troops, with the advantage of modern equipment and training, had failed to do during their four years in southern Iraq. Instead the Shia Muslim militias — the Mahdi Army loyal to Moqtadr al-Sadr, the Badr Brigades of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq and the smaller Fadillah Party — effectively took over the streets.

The three groups were in open contest for control of the city. The battle has little to do with ideology but everything to do with economics. Basra is the hub of Iraq’s valuable oil industry and the militias are making millions by taking their cut of the exports.

The problem now facing the British is how to respond to the fast-changing situation.

Nuri al-Maliki, the Iraqi Prime Minister, who flew to Basra to take personal control, said that his forces would fight “to the end” against the militias. Unfortunately for him, the end may come sooner than he expected. The Iraqi Army contingent of 30,000 troops has failed to dislodge the Mahdi Army, there are widespread reports of defections from the police to the militias and there are clear signs that the operation could backfire badly.

British forces, who can probably cobble together an armoured battle group of a few hundred soldiers, may well be asked to intervene should the Iraqi offensive fail. If that happens, any hope of the withdrawal promised by Gordon Brown last year of another 1,500 British troops this spring will have to be shelved until Basra can be stabilised.

It may even be necessary to reinforce the British contingent with more combat troops, something that the Ministry of Defence can ill afford as it prepares for the fighting season in Afghanistan.

The only other option would be for Britain to admit finally that it has lost the fight in southern Iraq. That would mean an ignominious withdrawal and handing over control of Basra to the Americans, who grudgingly would have to take over responsibility for the south. As American officers and officials have privately made clear, much of today’s problems in Basra can be traced back to Britain’s failure to commit the forces necessary to control Basra and southern Iraq in general.

Whereas President Bush’s “surge” tactic of sending 30,000 reinforcements to central Iraq has succeeded in bringing down the level of violence in Baghdad and Anbar province, the Americans believe that the gradual withdrawal of British troops from the south has had the opposite effect, a point that Mr al-Maliki and his soldiers are discovering to their cost on the streets of Basra today.

Battle lines

March 2003 46,000 troops
Mission Topple Saddam

May 2003 18,000 troops
Mission Secure the peace

May 2004 8,600 troops
Mission Win hearts and minds

January 2007 7,000 troops
Mission Curb violence

September 2007 5,500 troops
Mission Withdraw to Basra airport for “overwatch” role

December 2007 4,500 troops
Mission Support and training for Iraqi troops

Spring 2008 Planned reduction to 2,500 troops

Source: Times archive, agencies





Times Online

From The Times

March 28, 2008
Basra crisis leaves British withdrawal in ruins

James Hider in Baghdad, Michael Evans, Defence Editor and Richard Beeston, Foreign Editor

Britain faced one of its toughest challenges in Basra since the invasion of Iraq five years ago, after an Iraqi military offensive against Shia Muslim militias in the city appeared last night to have backfired, thwarting Government plans to bring 1,600 troops home this spring.

Intense fighting on the ground even raised the possibility that British forces could be asked to reengage on the frontline.

Nuri al-Maliki, the Iraqi Prime Minister, flew down to Saddam Hussain’s former palace in central Basra to take personal control of the offensive, led by 30,000 Iraqi troops backed by para-military police.

But reports from the city suggested that the Iraqi forces had failed to make any significant inroads and a deadline imposed for the militias to disarm was ignored. Instead Iraqi police were defecting to the militia ranks.

Ministry of Defence officials admitted last night that they were no longer thinking about cutting troop numbers to 2,500 from the Spring, as had been outlined by Gordon Brown in a statement to the Commons last October.

“We’re keeping troop numbers under review but we’re no longer talking about reducing to 2,500 at this time,” one official said.

Officials insisted that so far British forces were providing support only in the form of air cover and logistics support but did not rule out sending a small force to help the Iraqis if requested by the authorities in Baghdad.

Mr al-Maliki had hoped to lead his army to victory in Shia militia strongholds in Basra, Iraq’s oil city in the south. Instead, Iraq’s Shia prime minister was left with the prospect of disaster as district after district of his own capital fell to the rival Mahdi Army.

Residents of Basra complained that water and electricity had been turned off in the three main areas besieged by the Iraqi Army. Estimates of the death toll in Basra are as high as 200, with hundreds more wounded.

Under present strategy, the 4,100 British troops still in Iraq are supposed to remain at their base at the airport northwest of Basra and join the Iraqi forces in a security operation only when requested. No such request has been made and a source in Basra said there was not expected to be any call for help during the present operation.

President Bush praised the high-risk strategies. He said: “Prime Minister Maliki’s bold decision to go after the illegal groups in Basra shows his leadership and his commitment to enforce the law in an evenhanded manner.”