The Threat of a Re-Surge in Iraq - Moqtada al-Sadr

The Threat of a Re-Surge in Iraq - Moqtada al-Sadr

telegraph.co.uk
Basra is the test

Last Updated: 12:01am GMT 26/03/2008

The military offensive launched Tuesday in Basra by Nouri al-Maliki, the Iraqi prime minister, to "cleanse" the city of militiamen loyal to the rabble-rousing Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr needs to succeed. It is the first serious test of the ability of the Iraqi army to impose order unaided (other than with air support) by allied forces.

Training and equipping the Iraqi military to a level that allows them to maintain internal security has been a prime objective of the post-invasion strategy. If the operation in Basra works, it will be something of a landmark in a process of post-war reconstruction that has proved painfully difficult.

The near-anarchy that is now being tackled in Basra will add weight to the criticism that American commanders have levelled at the British for withdrawing from the city to the nearby airbase, where they have taken up a non-combatant, overwatch role.

The Americans complain that just as their aggressive surge strategy was beginning to pay dividends in Baghdad and the level of violence was falling, Britain was pursuing the opposite strategy, with wholly predictable consequences. In fact, the real roots of the unrest in Iraq's southern city run much deeper.

As Sir Hilary Synnott, the British diplomat sent in to run southern Iraq after the invasion, has pointed out, there was a "complete absence" of any post-war plan, a fact confirmed at the weekend by Jonathan Powell, Tony Blair's former chief of staff. Gordon Brown has already conceded in principle that this failure should be the subject of a full inquiry; we see no grounds for delaying such a move.

The danger now is that the assault against Sadr's Mahdi army will prompt unrest elsewhere - the Shia cities of Kut, Nasiriyah and Samawa were all put under curfew Tuesday.

If the Basra operation is the first real test of the Iraqi army's credibility, there will surely be many more in the months and years to come before the coalition forces can contemplate complete withdrawal. Yet if there can be no swift exit, success in Basra will at least offer the prospect of a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel.







Monday, Mar. 24, 2008

The Threat of a Re-Surge in Iraq

By Darrin Mortenson



General David Petraeus

General David Petraeus is due to report to Congress on the progress of the surge on April 8 and 9

Could Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's attempts to re-establish control over Basra backfire? There is a growing possibility that it could become a wider intra-Shi'ite war, drawing in the forces loyal to radical cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, whose ceasefire has been key to the success of the U.S. "surge"? If so, the consequences for American military strategy in Iraq in an all-important political year will be grave.

Maliki's government targeted Basra because it could. Unlike many other southern cities where fighting has escalated in recent weeks, Maliki has built an independent power base among the security forces there. But Tuesday's sweep of Basra could turn sour in other southern cities where the central government's power is weak. Indeed, many Shi'ites are seeing this not just as an example of the Shi'ite Maliki taking on other Shi'ites (including Sadrists) but of America backing the Prime Minister up in a de facto Shi'a civil war. Iraqi government forces have attacked Shi'ite militias and gangs in at least seven major southern Iraq cities in the past two weeks. And America has been there to support Maliki's troops every time.

In response, Sadr loyalists have already taken to the streets in Baghdad, where U.S. troops will have to deal with the backlash. U.S. officials have so far shied away from blaming Sadr for the recent rise of violence (including an Easter attack on the Green Zone), mostly because Sadr's ceasefire has been key to the success of the surge. (General David Petraeus has pointed the finger at Iran instead.) But as clashes increase, they may not be able to dance around it for much longer.

The violence is escalating as Patraeus, the architect of the nine-month military "surge" involving some 30,000 extra troops in Iraq, prepares for a scheduled Apr. 8 and 9 report to congress on his progress in Iraq. They also come as he and Defense Secretary Robert Gates waffle over whether to withdraw five combat brigades by July, reducing troop levels down from about 158,000 to 140,000 — the pre-surge peak. If the fighting spreads to other southern cities and attacks by Shi'ite militias increase, intra-Shiite violence may be the wrench that jams the whole works of a meaningful reduction of troops.

While the focus this weekend on attacks on Baghdad has now turned towards Basra, violence has surged for weeks throughout the Shi'ite south, where Americans have suffered fresh losses in old haunts in the cities of Nasiriyah, Hilla and Diwaniyah. Meanwhile, the Shi'ite infighting in Basra has forced British forces to stall the planned withdrawal of some 1,500 troops. Some 4,000 British troops have been hunkered down at the Basra airport after turning the city over to Iraqi forces last year. So far they have not been drawn from their base into this week's fighting there.

If the U.S. decides to actively go after the Shi'ite forces in the south, it would mean reopening a southern front where American forces once fought some of the Iraq war's fiercest battles against Sadr but now have only a shadow presence. That would involve draining the concentration of surge troops around Baghdad and the Sunni triangle. It might even require more troop extensions or additional deployments to hold ground and maintain modest gains. Moving against the Shi'ite strongholds could then open opportunities for the Sunni fighters of al-Qaeda to strike Iraqi and U.S. targets in the Sunni triangle as the American heat turns south.

This week's violence in Baghdad and Basra followed several days of bloodshed in the Shi'ite city of Kut, some 100 miles southeast of the capital, where Sadr loyalists clashed with police forces largely controlled by their Shi'ite rivals, the Badr Corps militants of the Supreme Islamic Council of Iraq, and with government troops affiliated with Maliki's Da'awa party.

"This was expected. It was just a matter of timing," said Vali Nasr, Tufts University scholar and author of the bestselling book, The Shi'a Revival: How Conflicts within Islam Will Shape the Future. "The ceasefire and the surge allowed everyone to regroup and rearm. There is still the Shi'a-Sunni conflict. There is still the Sadr-Badr conflict. The surge and the ceasefire merely kept them apart, but there has never been a real political settlement," he said. "No, the big battle for Iraq hasn't been fought yet. The future of Iraq has not been determined." Nasr said the question now remains just how deep U.S. forces will get sucked into a Shi'ite civil war.

Sadr's ceasefire did allow U.S. forces to concentrate on hunting al-Qaeda in Baghdad, Mosul and Diyala without having an open front in the south. But it also allowed the cleric to rearm, clean his own house and retake the reins of his splintering movement. However, Sadr's devoted rank and file seem to be itching for a fight now as the Iraqi government and their American backers take sides with rival factions and continue to crack down on Sadr's Jaish al Mahdi, or JAM. "Sadr has had an interest in making sure everyone knows he's still around," Nasr said. "He's not going to go down without a fight."

The conveniently quiet arrangement between Sadr and the U.S. is now being challenged from within and from without. "There are all kinds of groups who would be interested in dragging [Sadr] into positions and into conflicts that he doesn't want to be in," said Anthony Cordesman, a top Iraq analyst for the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. Cordesman warns against jumping to conclusions that the south is rising up. He says it's more likely that the recent violence is a sign that the many Shi'ite factions that have broken from Sadr's movement are seeking to prove their mettle, and that al-Qaeda cells are seeking new ways to strike as they are forced out of more and more areas by U.S. and Iraqi forces.

Cordesman echoes Army Lt. Gen Ray Odierno, who, after leading U.S. forces in Iraq for the past 15 months, recently reported that Sadr seemed to be softening and his movement becoming more of a faith-based political movement than a militia waiting to kill Americans or take power by force. That said, Odierno expressed concern over the growing Shi'ite rivalries. "I worry about intra-Shi'a violence a bit," he said upon returning to the Pentagon earlier this month. "That could, you know, spiral out of control."

Find this article at:

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1725265,00.html







Friday, Feb. 22, 2008

Sadr Keeps Iraq Guessing

By Mark Kukis/Baghdad



Moqtada al-Sadr

Mehdi Army members escort Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr during his visit to the holy city of Najaf, Iraq, Feb. 27, 2006.

When the envelope was finally opened, Moqtada al-Sadr's message couldn't have been tamer. Having sent out sealed envelopes to Shi'ite mosques around Iraq containing his verdict on the future of the cease-fire observed by his Medhi Army, Iraq waited on tenterhooks for the message to be read at Friday prayers. "I'm extending the freeze of army activity," al-Sadr's statement read, ordering his militia to remain standing down until mid-August, when presumably the cleric will reconsider. Despite pressure from within his movement's ranks to end the cease-fire that, they complain, has been used by U.S. forces and al-Sadr's Shi'ite rivals to go after the organization, Friday's message hardly mentioned his many enemies in Iraq.

Many in Iraq had feared that Sadr would nix the cease-fire, a move likely to set off another round of sectarian violence and reverse many of the gains of the U.S. troop surge. But U.S. officials had expected that Sadr would maintain the pause, which has been a major factor in bringing down the overall level of violence in Iraq. Sadr had sent some signals to the Americans suggesting he was likely to extend the cease-fire. And U.S. officials, such as Gen. David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker, believe that the Shi'ite firebrand may be changing his ways.

"We have seen a shift in Sadr's strategy, I believe," said Gen. Raymond Odierno, the ground commander for U.S. forces in Iraq. "He has talked more and more about moving toward a more humanitarian movement, a political movement more like his father had, and away from a more lethal, militia-type movement."

The Sadr movement has, of course, long been involved in social and political activism in addition to militia violence. Its activists can be found doing everything from from holding seats in parliament to offering cut-rate propane in poor Shi'ite neighborhoods. That the Sadrists might choose to emphasize some of these activities over armed confrontation is quite plausible, but Moqtada al-Sadr is notoriously unpredictable, and the thinking behind his moves is often unclear. Sadr could just as easily be simply biding his time until surge troops leave in July.

Yet Sadr learned in 2004, at great cost to his organization, that open confrontation with U.S. forces is a bad idea. The Mahdi Army fared poorly against U.S. troops in two separate uprisings in southern Iraq that year. In the years that followed, Sadr's militia fighters kept up a kind of shadow war against U.S. troops, staging sporadic guerrilla attacks. But the Mahdi Army has largely avoided confronting U.S. forces for years, and the cease-fire Sadr announced unexpectedly six months ago was not directed at the Americans as much as it was aimed at halting fighting between Sadr's followers and members of the rival Shi'ite Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC) and its Badr militia. Intra-Shi'ite fighting threatened al-Sadr's popularity, and it was in his interests to tamp things down. But the Sadrists and SIIC are still vying for control in much of southern Iraq, and their conflict is likely to flare up again. Al-Sadr may be calculating that it will be easier to fight his rivals in the summer, when there will be fewer American forces to stand in the way.

Extending the cease-fire also allows Sadr to distance himself from the thuggish violence of members of his militia, while keeping the organization intact despite U.S. and Iraqi government demands that he disband it.

So, while Friday's announcement was greeted with relief, most in Baghdad are still left wondering about Sadr's intentions and plans. "I'm always real modest about analyzing our capacity to analyze," said U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker. "We don't see very much of the Sadrists. And the those we do see I think definitely represent the clear political trend; they don't much like militias either. But what insight do we actually have into a very, very complex phenomenon? Not much."

Find this article at:

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1715535,00.html







THREATS WATCH

http://threatswatch.org/rapidrecon/2008/03/iran-not-alsadr-leading-shia-a/


Iran, Not al-Sadr, Leading Shi'a Attacks In Iraq

As Shi’a militias and armed groups strike out at US and Iraqi targets from Baghdad to Basra, it is curious to note how many news reports attribute the attacks to Muqtada al-Sadr, either directly or indirectly.

Rocket attacks on the U.S.-protected Green Zone may carry a message with implications across Iraq: rising anger within the Mahdi Army militia.

The Shiite fighters led by anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr are reorganizing their ranks, taking delivery of new weapons from Iran and ramping up complaints about crackdowns by U.S. and Iraqi forces that could unravel the Mahdi Army’s self-declared cease-fire, according to militia commanders.

But Muqtada al-Sadr was sidelined from any command by Iran weeks ago. There are no attributions of direct quotes, commands or comment from Muqtada since the Shi’a militia uprising began in earnest. And there is a very simple explanation for this: The puppet has had his strings cut. Iran is calling the shots.

The fact that his note exists is far more important than its specific wording.

“So far I did not succeed either to liberate Iraq or make it an Islamic society — whether because of my own inability or the inability of society, only God knows,” Sadr wrote.

“The continued presence of the occupiers, on the one hand, and the disobedience of many on the other, pushed me to isolate myself in protest. I gave society a big proportion of my life. Even my body became weaker, I got more sicknesses.”

In reality, the continued presence of his Iranian masters pushed him to isolate himself. Iran has changed other leadership positions and oriented other terrorist groups toward field operational leadership and away from political leadership. The IRGC commander was changed. Hizballah’s military command was stripped from Nasrallah and handed to sheikh Naim Qasim in the Bekaa Valley. And Hamas is effectively run by al-Qassam Brigades military commander Ahmed Jabari in Gaza, not Khalid Meshaal in Damascus nor Ismail Haniyeh in Gaza City.

As such, the militarily incompetent Muqtada al-Sadr has been yanked from control of the Mahdi Army. We are seeing the natural and intended progression of this change in Iraq today.

The shelling of the ‘Green Zone’ (or International Zone) in Baghdad in coordination with attacks throughout southern Iraq from Basra to Baghdad are not a reaction to an al-Sadr decision any more than they are the effects of his military leadership and command. They are the fruits of Iranian labor.

The rockets used in the Green Zone attacks “were Iranian-provided, Iranian-made rockets,” General Petraeus said.

Can we dismiss this from the most successful US commander in Iraq since the conflict began? Further, is it wise to also dismiss the trend of Iranian command changes across the board to operational ground commanders? And, is it wise to forget that Muqtada al-Sadr announced his seclusion and withdrawal from command (at the behest of his Iranian masters)?

In order to minimize or dismiss Iran’s guiding hand in the fighting in Iraq, one must do all of these things. And this is completely illogical. Completely.

Yet, so desperate some seem to avoid any conflict with Iran, they ignore that fact that Iran has already chosen the conflict, whether we like it or not.

It is an ‘Inconvenient Truth.’

By Steve Schippert on March 25, 2008 at 12:29 PM | Permalink









telegraph.co.uk
Q&A: Who is Moqtada al-Sadr?


By Damien McElroy

Last Updated: 2:15am GMT 26/03/2008



Who is Moqtada al-Sadr?

Iraq's leading insurgent and scion of one of the country's leading religious dynasties. The 35-year-old is a poor public speaker but holds enormous influence over mainly poor Shi'ites in Baghdad and Basra.




Moqtada al-Sadr, the radical cleric

Moqtada al-Sadr is gambling that he can withstand an onslaught by Iraqi forces

Regarded by the US as public enemy number one in Iraq after the execution of Saddam Hussein.

Has Sadr always been an enemy of the Baghdad government?

Sadr's rise was opposed by the US-led authority in Iraq. His newspaper was banned in 2004 for spreading hatred and an arrest warrant was issued against Sadr.

US marines fought Sadr's followers for control of Najaf the same year. Sadr's Mahdi army is the most powerful grassroots organisation in Iraq.

He boycotted the 2005 election but his allies won a substantial number of seats. He initially supported Nouri al-Maliki as prime minister of Iraq's Shi'ite-dominated coalition but relations broke down in 2007.

How is the Mahdi army seen in Iraq?

It depends where one stands on the sectarian divide. The Mahdi army spearheaded the worst fighting of Iraq's civil war. Its fighters now dominate eastern Baghdad and swathes of its western districts, areas which have been cleansed of Sunni Muslims. Elsewhere, Sadr generally gets credit for being the most nationalistic of Iraqi leaders.

Although his fighters have benefited from Iranian training and arms supplies, Sadr is viewed as an Arab nationalist. Despite declaring a ceasefire against American and British troops last August, he remains implacably opposed to the presence of foreign troops in Iraq.

What has the ceasefire achieved?

Gen David Petraeus, the American commander in Iraq, recognised that the move could dramatically curtail US military casualties. US spokesmen were instructed to draw the distinction between "responsible" followers of Sadr, who suspended fighting, and "special groups" of Shi'ite guerrillas, who continued the insurgency.

Where is he now?

Sadr is believed to have moved to Tehran last year and is studying to become an ayatollah in the holy city of Qom. He is said to have married an Iranian woman.

It is not clear how much control he exercises over the Mahdi army. A substantial part of the army still takes its orders from the Qods Force of Iran's Revolutionary Guards.

The ceasefire has been repeatedly tested by the "special groups", but Sadr's call for a civil revolt appears to have been prompted by the necessity of surviving the most aggressive bid by Iraq's security forces to assert the state's authority in Basra.

What happens next?

Sadr is gambling that he can withstand an onslaught by Iraqi forces without outright war. Purging extremists in his movement remains a work in progress.

The Iraqi army, despite its advantages of British and American training, does not have the organisation or discipline to drive his followers out of towns and cities across Iraq.

The best that can be hoped for is that Sadr supporters will acquiesce to a stronger security force and establish their support in provincial elections, due to be held in October.












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SAUDI ARABIA







Wednesday 26 March 2008 (18 Rabi` al-Awwal 1429)





Editorial: Test in Basra
26 March 2008 —



The Iraqi government is seeking to reimpose its control of Basra, the country’s second city. Although this moment had to come — for any part of the country to be run as a lawless fiefdom is totally unacceptable — there is no denying it is a high-risk move for two key reasons.

This is the first major test for the new security forces, 50,000 of whom have been deployed into Basra. Will they demonstrate the training and ability to overcome the militias that have effectively run this city even before the British withdrew to the outskirts last September? Early evidence is that the gunmen have put up stiff resistance. If the fighting drags on, not only will the security forces face humiliation, but ordinary Basrawis will be in dire straits as they run out of food because markets are closed and the streets are battle zones.

The second concern is that the Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr will denounce the truce which, since it came into effect last August, has done a great deal to reduce the level of violence in much of the country. Yesterday he threatened civil conflict. His men have thrown Iraqi police out of his political power base — the run-down Sadr City district of Baghdad where some two million Shiites live. But it remains to be seen if he really intends once again to take on the government and the occupation forces behind them.

For a start, the Mehdi Army is not the only government target in Basra. The Badr Brigade allied to the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council (SIIC) and the smallest militia, the Fadhila, are also being assaulted by Iraqi police and army. These groups had been fighting each other and have been implicated in oil and narcotics smuggling. Outright criminal gangs have also been operating alongside or between them. The anarchic result in Iraq’s premier port and oil center is a serious threat to economic recovery. It is also questionable just how much control Sadr now has over neighborhood warlords who claim to act in his name. Despite renewing the cease-fire last month, so-called “rogue” elements throughout the Mehdi Army have stepped up attacks, particularly against Americans.

It may be significant that Sadr’s office has blamed the government’s Basra assault on “politics” ahead of expected provincial elections this autumn. This suggests the militia leader still values the political process. He quit the national unity government in November 2006, protesting Premier Maliki’s meeting with President Bush. The following January, Sadr and his people rejoined only to quit again four months later, demanding a timetable for the coalition’s withdrawal. He may have been influenced then by Iran president. President Ahmadinejad’s important recent visit to Baghdad, however, emphasized the need for political solutions, effectively wrong-footing Sadr’s tactics. The Iranian president may also have accepted, at least in principle, that Basra could no longer remain in divided chaos. The question for the militia leader is whether his power would increase through renewed conflict or if he tried to take his supporters back into the political process.



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csmonitor.com - The Christian Science Monitor Online

from the March 26, 2008 edition - http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0326/p01s13-woiq.html



Across Iraq, battles erupt with Mahdi Army

Moqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army fought US, Iraqi forces in Baghdad and Basra on Tuesday.

By Sam Dagher | Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor



Baghdad



ShiIte Supporters: During a recent protest in Baghdad, protesters held signs in support of Iraq and cleric Moqtada al Sadr. Mr. Sadr's Mahdi Army has started a civil disobedience campaign.


ShiIte Supporters: During a recent protest in Baghdad, protesters held signs in support of Iraq and cleric Moqtada al Sadr. Mr. Sadr's Mahdi Army has started a civil disobedience campaign.

Thaier AL-Sudnai/Reuters



The Mahdi Army's seven-month-long cease-fire appears to have come undone.

Rockets fired from the capital's Shiite district of Sadr City slammed into the Green Zone Tuesday, the second time in three days, and firefights erupted around Baghdad pitting government and US forces against the militia allied to the influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr.

At the same time, the oil-export city of Basra became a battleground Tuesday as Iraqi forces, backed by US air power, launched a major crackdown on the Mahdi Army elements. British and US forces were guarding the border with Iran to intercept incoming weapons or fighters, according to a senior security official in Basra.

The US blames the latest attacks on rogue Mahdi Army elements tied to Iran, but analysts say the spike in fighting with Shiite militants potentially opens a second front in the war when the American military is still doing battle with the Sunni extremists of Al Qaeda in Iraq.

"The cease-fire is over; we have been told to fight the Americans," said one Mahdi Army militiaman, who was reached by telephone in Sadr City. This same man, when interviewed in January, had stated that he was abiding by the cease-fire and that he was keeping busy running his cellular phone store.

Sadr City residents say they saw fighting Tuesday between Mahdi militiamen and US and Iraqi forces in several parts of the district. One eyewitness, in the adjacent neighborhood of Baghdad Jadida, who wished to remain anonymous, said he saw a heavy militia presence on the streets, with two fighters planting roadside bombs on a main thoroughfare.

Lt. Col. Steve Stover of the Baghdad-based 4th Infantry Division said that in the span of 12 hours Tuesday 16 rockets were fired at the Green Zone and nine rockets and 18 mortar rounds fell on US bases and combat outposts on the east side of Baghdad. A mortar round hit a US patrol in the northern Adhamiyah district, killing one US soldier. A roadside bomb set a US Humvee on fire in Sadr City but all soldiers inside survived. He said clashes broke out between American forces and militiamen when they attacked several government checkpoints in the district and that some of these posts are now manned by both US and Iraqi forces.

Almost exactly four years ago, American forces and Mr. Sadr's loyalists clashed on the streets of Baghdad's Sadr City and the holy city of Najaf shortly after the US shuttered his newspaper for allegedly inciting violence. That round of fighting lasted several months and at one point the Americans were aiming to arrest Sadr, a cleric whose religious credentials come from his father who was widely influential and loved.

The fighting burnished Sadr's standing among fellow Shiites wary of the US occupation. Over the years, the US has repeatedly accused elements within the Sadrist movement of having ties with Iran and even Lebanon's Hizbullah.

After rockets hit the Green Zone Sunday, US commander in Iraq Gen. David Petraeus said the weapons had been provided by Iran.

On Tuesday, Rear Adm. Greg Smith, spokesman for US-led multinational forces in Iraq, blamed the elite Quds units of Iran's Revolutionary Guards for supplying the 22 107-mm and 122-mm rockets that hit the heavily fortified area of Baghdad that is home to the US Embassy.

"We believe the violence is being instigated by members of special groups that are beholden to the Iranian Quds Force and not Sadr.... Although we are concerned, we know that very few Iraqis want a return to the violence they experienced before the surge," he says.

Admiral Smith says US and Iraqi forces were facing two distinct enemies in Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) and the Iranian-trained and supplied special groups. But he adds, "AQI is still Iraq's No. 1 enemy."

There is growing concern, however, that Iran could respond to such US accusations. "This is pretty serious, and if the Iranians do not back down rapidly this will escalate," says Martin Navias, an analyst at Britain's Centre for Defence Studies at King's College in London. "The US has a number of problems with Iran, mainly the nuclear program and its behavior in Iraq. There are many people in the Bush administration who want to hit Iran."

While Iraqi troops fought with Shiite militants in Basra Tuesday, a contingent of Coalition troops, including British and US forces, mobilized at Basra's border with Iran to prevent militiamen from escaping or smuggling in ammunition and weapons, according to a senior security source in the city who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of his remarks.

The US military refused to comment on this, citing "security reasons" during ongoing operations, while another spokesman, Col. Bill Buckner, said the Basra operation was Iraqi-led and that the US was providing "limited assistance" mainly in "intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and ... support aircraft."

The US military has regularly accused Iran of smuggling weapons into Iraq over this border, particularly armor-piercing bombs known as explosively formed penetrators (EFP) that have been blamed for the deaths of many US soldiers in Iraq.

"This is a major operation aimed at outlaws and removing all heavy weapons and explosives from the hands of militias inside the city. It has now escalated into fighting between the Iraqi Army and the Mahdi Army because they are resisting," the security official said by phone from Basra, a few hours after the start of the offensive dubbed "The Knights' Assault."

The Basra-based official said that fighting is now centered in Mahdi Army strongholds in the neighborhoods of Tamimiyah, Hayaniyah, and Five Miles, and that there was also fighting in the neighboring provinces of Nasiriyah and Maysan.

A curfew has also been imposed in Nasiriyah and other southern cities, such as Samawa and Kut, the scene of clashes involving the Mahdi Army over the past two weeks.

One Basra resident reached by phone said he was holed up at his office at the local branch of the ministry of trade, and described the sound of explosions and gunfire as "terrifying."

Two Iraqi Army battalions and five battalions of the National Police's quick-reaction force were dispatched to Basra, where an entire Army division is already stationed.

"The lawlessness is going on under religious or political cover along with oil, weapons, and drug smuggling. These outlaws found support from inside government institutions either willingly or by coercion ... turning Basra into a place where no citizen can feel secure for his life and property," said Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki in a statement read on state television, which reported that Mr. Maliki along with the ministers of defense and interior were all in Basra to oversee the operation.

The reaction from Sadr's camp was swift. At a press conference in the holy city of Najaf, three of the cleric's top lieutenants condemned the government offensive and accused Maliki, a Shiite, of carrying out a US agenda. They also threatened a nationwide campaign of protests and civil disobedience if US and Iraqi forces continued to fight the Mahdi Army.

Smith, the military spokesman, said the US would not stop this campaign if it remained peaceful.

One of the movement's leaders, Liwa Smaisim, described as "preposterous" US claims that it was only targeting splinter elements of the Mahdi Army.

Hazem al-Aaraji, another leader usually based in Baghdad, said the current fighting was a continuation of a campaign by the movement's Shiite rivals in the Iraqi government to finish it off – a drive it began last fall in southern Iraq.

Sadr's influence was felt throughout Baghdad Tuesday, highlighting the risk that the fight in Basra may spread to the capital, home to a large segment of his supporters. On Tuesday, witnesses reported that gun battles broke out in the capital's Sadr City district between the militia and rivals from the Badr Organization, which is part of Maliki's ruling Shiite coalition.

The offices of one of the branches of Maliki’s Dawa Party was torched in Sadr City, according to the US military.

On Monday evening, pickup trucks filled with chanting Mahdi militiamen, within sight of Iraqi forces, were forcing shopkeepers in many parts of Baghdad's west side to close in protest of US and Iraq Army raids.

On Tuesday, all shops in the Mahdi Army stronghold neighborhoods – Bayiaa, Iskan, Shuala, and Washash – were shuttered. Leaflets saying "No, no to America" were plastered on each storefront. Anti-American banners hung right next to Iraqi government checkpoints.

Several people interviewed in the Amel neighborhood said they were forced by militiamen to return home when they tried to go to work this morning. "This is anarchy," says Ali al-Yasseri.

• Awadh al-Taiee in Baghdad and a Najaf-based Iraqi journalist contributed reporting.

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Monday, Mar. 24, 2008

An Ominous Milestone in Iraq

By Charles Crain/Baghdad



A U.S. soldiers wait in an alley while on patrol in Baghdad, Iraq.

A U.S. soldiers wait in an alley while on patrol in Baghdad, Iraq.

Spencer Platt / Getty

Death had been taking something of a holiday in Iraq, but it seemed to come back from vacation with a vengeance on Easter, with ominous implications for American strategy. Sunday dawned in Baghdad's Green Zone with a barrage of mortars courtesy of Shi'ite militiamen. Several more mortars poured in throughout the day. Meanwhile, attacks across Iraq on Sunday killed dozens of people, including four American soldiers in a deadly roadside bombing in southern Baghdad. That last incident raised the number of U.S. military fatalities in Iraq to 4,000. While an American military spokesman pointed out that "no casualty is more or less significant than another," the timing of the ramped-up violence is telling. The trend comes as American troop strength — increased to implement the vaunted "surge" — continues to decline from heights reached in November.

For journalists who have covered this country through its darkest months, the barrage of mortars and the smoke plumes rising out of the Green Zone brought to mind Baghdad of a year ago, when the Iraqi capital was wracked by sectarian violence and terrorist attacks. For many Baghdadis, the violence served as a unnerving reminder that the improvements that have come with the "surge" are fragile, easily shattered. Said Mithal Alusi, a Green Zone resident and member of Iraq's parliament: "In a minute, in a second, just like that... we can fall into hell again."

After a sharp decline at the end of 2007, violence in Iraq seems to be on the upswing. The weekend's violence indicates that both the Sunni insurgency and the Shi'ite militias retain their ability and their desire to strike their enemies. The largest Shi'ite militia, the Mahdi Army, is observing a cease-fire and militia violence has fallen dramatically. But rogue elements of the organization continue to launch attacks against Americans. Sunday's mortars were launched from a Shi'ite enclave.

As often happens when Shi'ite militiamen launch mortars and rockets at the Green Zone, some of the missiles don't hit their intended target. Early risers in Karrada, just south of the Green Zone across the Tigris River, heard the distant rumble of a launch and then, seconds later, a crash that rattled windows and sent residents looking for cover. Karrada, home to a number of Shi'ite politicians, is often targeted by Sunni insurgents; Sunday morning it was the accidental victim of other Shi'ites. In an interview with the BBC, Gen. David Petraeus, commander of the U.S.-led coalition forces in Iraq, said that he believed that Iran was behind the assault on the Green Zone. Petraeus and the U.S. military have been blaming Iran's Quds special forces for masterminding Shi'ite militia violence against the U.S.

Across Baghdad, especially on the city's east side, the Mahdi Army continues to operate from de facto safe havens. The Americans cooperate with local leaders and cannot be too aggressive, lest they upset the fragile truce that has mostly held since the end of August. But as U.S. troops leave the Iraqi capital the balance of power may once again shift to the militia. The mortars were a reminder that the Mahdi Army is waiting the Americans out, not giving way to them.

Meanwhile, bombings killed dozens of Iraqis. In Mosul a suicide bomber drove into a military base and killed at least 13 police officers, according to the Associated Press. Mosul is the latest hotbed of insurgent violence. Seven Iraqis were also killed when a suicide bomber targeted a Shi'ite neighborhood in Baghdad. The tactics and the targets are both hallmarks of the Sunni insurgency. The American troop surge and the defection of some insurgent groups to the American side has put tremendous pressure on radical religious insurgent groups like al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI). American commanders still call AQI the biggest threat to Iraqi security. Just as their nemeses in the Shi'ite militias seem to have weathered the storm of the American troop surge, the Sunni insurgency has proven resilient as well. With reporting by Bobby Ghosh/Baghdad

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Last Updated: Monday, 24 March 2008, 15:21 GMT








Iran 'behind Green Zone attack'



Gen Petraeus said he was surprised how Sunnis turned against al-Qaeda

General Petraeus

The most senior US general in Iraq has said he has evidence that Iran was behind Sunday's bombardment of Baghdad's heavily fortified Green Zone.

Gen David Petraeus told the BBC he thought Tehran had trained, equipped and funded insurgents who fired the barrage of mortars and rockets.

He said Iran was adding what he described as "lethal accelerants" to a very combustible mix.

There has as yet been no response from Iran to the accusations.



The rockets that were launched at the Green Zone yesterday, for example... were Iranian-provided, Iranian-made rockets

Gen David Petraeus

Interest in Iraq slumps

Troop toll 'no milestone'

In response to the news that 4,000 US military personnel have now been killed in Iraq, he said it showed how much the mission had cost but added that Americans were realistic about it.

He also said a great deal of progress had been made because of the "flipping" of communities - the decision by Sunni tribes to turn against al-Qaeda militants.

The extent of this had surprised even the US military, he said.

'Promises violated'

In an interview with BBC world affairs editor John Simpson, Gen Petraeus said violence in Iraq was being perpetuated by Iran's Quds Force, a branch of the Revolutionary Guards.

Smoke rising from the Green Zone

The attacks led to 15 civilian deaths

"The rockets that were launched at the Green Zone yesterday, for example... were Iranian-provided, Iranian-made rockets," he said, adding that the groups that fired them were funded and trained by the Quds Force.

"All of this in complete violation of promises made by President Ahmadinejad and the other most senior Iranian leaders to their Iraqi counterparts."

The barrage hit the Green Zone on Sunday morning. Some rockets missed their targets killing 15 Iraqi civilians.

Later in the day four US soldiers died when their patrol vehicle was blown up by a bomb in southern Baghdad, putting the total number of US fatalities above 4,000.

This and other bloodshed on Sunday came despite an overall reduction in violence since last June, when the US deployed an extra 30,000 troops for the surge.

Days earlier, Mr Bush marked the fifth anniversary of the invasion, saying that it had made the world a better place.