| CAMPAIGN OUTSIDER
Checklists for the next big vote
By Muhammad Cohen
HONG KONG - With five weeks to go until a significant vote for the Democrats in Pennsylvania, and more than five months to go until a meaningful ballot for Republicans, the US presidential campaigns have a moment to catch their breath. But it's also time to take stock of where they are and look ahead.
To make it simple for the campaigns, here are handy to-do lists to put them on the winning path for that next big vote. John McCain
Stay home
John, John, John ... I know that trip to Iraq was part of your Senate duties and, accompanied by two members of your campaign committee, had nothing to do with the campaign. (I've also put out a carrot for the Easter Bunny and given him a note to bring to Santa Claus.) I know experts tell you to play to your strengths. I know that you're the father of the troop "surge" that you claim has turned the tide of the war in Iraq.
You should know you've already convinced voters you have greater foreign affairs expertise than your rivals, especially when it comes to making war. Everyone knows where you stand, and there’s nothing more to tell.
Moreover, these trips don't always go as intended. The last time you went to Iraq and took your stroll through the market, you got a lot of bad publicity for having half a battalion deployed to guard you. Worst, you looked like a 12-year-old swimming in that flak jacket, reminiscent of Dukakis in the tank. You lost the visible armor this trip, but rest assured Democrats use that image and ties to the war against you.
Back home, the tide of concern has turned toward the economy. You need to stay home and surge your campaign toward economic issues.
You've gotten off to a bad start by admitting you don't understand the dismal science. A trip overseas in the midst of the one of the most chaotic Wall Street weeks ever - where even the fall of "Sheriff" Eliot Spitzer only momentarily cheered markets - without a major statement about the situation indicates you don't particularly care either. While you were in the Middle East, oil rose to another record above US$108 barrel; you couldn't manage a couple of sentences to a convenient prince or minister and then a friendly reporter?
You've got an agile mind and pride yourself on being an independent thinker. If you take some time and think about economics, you're bound to come up with something better than the standard "lower taxes, less regulation" mantra that has brought us to this juncture, where major banks teeter near collapse and US taxpayers bail them out so they can be swallowed on the cheap by Wall Street rivals; well at least it's not Chinese rivals. The George W Bush administration's own Treasury Secretary, Federal Reserve chairman and Securities and Exchange Commission chief agree deregulation has failed in financial markets. The Ronald Reagan revolution was 25 years ago; time to reload, soldier.
There are a lot of niches available between Bush and Karl Marx, let alone the Democratic candidates. Rather than scramble around the globe, sit down with some books, a range of experts, and some regular folks. That's the best way - to borrow a line from another candidate - to find your voice on what will likely be the biggest issue of the 2008 vote, and the pivotal one for your campaign.
Barack Obama
Keep running against John McCain
The more dismissive you are of the Hillary Clinton campaign and its efforts to fight in the gutter, the more successful you are. That means finding a spokesperson to respond to the junk the Clinton team will keep shoveling against the fan, so you can stay on message and look more presidential.
It also means not going out of your way to look for nonsense. Your campaign reportedly lifted Geraldine Ferraro's comments up from obscurity into the political spotlight. Sure, her statement that you've succeeded because you're black was offensive, but that's not the point. If your side goes fishing for slights and broadcasting them, then which side is making the campaign about race instead of the issues? In the same vein, you've got to help, not hinder, the search for fixes in Florida and Michigan. (See Clinton's to-do list below.)
Your side does need to get better at dealing with attacks, making better choices about when and how to respond. Get the drill down now. Things will only get rougher facing the Republicans.
Find a new American flag pin. You need to pulverize notions that you are a less patriotic American than your opponents. That you stopped wearing an American flag pin is foolish to discuss. But in this age of fighting needless wars with poor people's children and handing the bill to future generations, patriotism ain't what it used to be; foolish, empty symbolism substitutes for too many American values. Talk about values that transcend a pin that was probably made in China. That would also inject a welcome dose of humility into your profile.
We overseas Americans would love to hear you tell our stay-at-home compatriots how living overseas and having roots branching to four continents has helped you understand in profoundly personal ways that America is the greatest country on earth. With your gift for rhetoric, you could put something together that would get a standing ovation from the founding fathers. It's not fair that you need to do it, but if you want fair, loop the San Diego weather report.
Iraq Withdrawal Study Group. While huffing and puffing her way through her 15 minutes of campaign trail fame, Samantha Power said that she was a part of your study group on Iraq. You need to reassemble a similar group to firm your national security bona fides, and show that your position on Iraq is grounded in cold, hard facts.
It's already not enough for you to say that you'll get the troops out as soon as possible, and it's ridiculous to talk about sending them back if there's trouble. We tried that in Latin America for most of the 20th century, and it left us as public enemy number one on an impoverished continent. "Yankee go home" works in any language, and John Wayne is dead.
You need to give a major speech that announces your Iraq Withdrawal Study Group, headed by a military supporter, such as General Anthony Zinni, to provide you with scenarios for withdrawal from Iraq from your first day in office. Explain that you're not trying to outflank or replace the Pentagon and that as president, unlike the Bush people, you'll value and respect the advice of military professionals on military matters. But the Pentagon has to fight this war as directed by the current administration, while your group can focus on ending the war as soon as possible, and help the Pentagon reorient toward your objectives more seamlessly when you take office.
Hillary Clinton
Support honest party contests in Michigan and Florida
Ever since your victory party in Florida, celebrating finishing first in a vote that all candidates agreed wouldn't count, you've been trying to game the situation there and in Michigan. In fact, you started gaming back in Michigan, where yours was the only name that wasn't removed from the Democratic ballot. Pretending that either of these results represents the will of the voters in those states is a loser's gambit.
Unless the Democratic Party and the campaigns let voters in Michigan and Florida express their preferences equitably, it will cost them in November. The fallout will be felt beyond Michigan and critical swing state Florida. It will give McCain and the Republicans a national narrative of Democratic incompetence and playing politics with the will of the people. If Democrats can't be trusted to run a fair nomination process, how can they be trusted to run the country and keep it secure?
It's imperative that both campaigns agree that an honest vote is far more important than jockeying for advantage from this unfortunate situation. Work with Howard Dean, who should resign and return to his well-earned obscurity at the close of this campaign, and state officials to conduct new votes. Then, act like the attractive candidate that you are and go out and win those legitimate votes honestly instead of trying to steal the phony ones.
Get on the straight talk express. The controversy over the Florida and Michigan votes feeds a larger storyline: Clinton will say or do anything to get elected. Even when you're sincere, as you must have been at least once or twice during the campaign, no one buys it.
Start straightening out the double talk. Stop acting like a lawyer and admit that your vote to authorize the Iraq war was a mistake; tell us why you made the mistake, what you learned, and why it won't happen again. Ditto with the botch job you did on healthcare reform in 1993. Don't pretend you were the angel of peace in the Balkans and Northern Ireland, or that you wrestled with the Beijing government to take the chains off 600 million Chinese women. Admit that you did in Beijing what you accuse Obama of doing: you gave a speech. Release your tax returns and your White House records. The way to convince people you have nothing to hide is to stop hiding things.
All campaigns that note: after nearly eight years of Bush, Americans want a president they can trust. You don't build trust by calling your opponent names.
Former broadcast news producer Muhammad Cohen told America’s story to the world as a US diplomat and is author of Hong Kong On Air (www.hongkongonair.com), a novel set during the 1997 handover about television news, love, betrayal, high finance and cheap lingerie.
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